January 2025 Temperature Increase (ºC)
>1.34 100.0%
<1.20 <1%
1.20-1.24 <1%
1.25-1.29 <1%
$4,925,571 Vol.
$4,925,571 Vol.
Jan 31, 2025
<1.20
$1,059,734 Vol.
No
<1.20
$1,059,734 Vol.
No
1.20-1.24
$998,803 Vol.
No
1.20-1.24
$998,803 Vol.
No
1.25-1.29
$1,001,356 Vol.
No
1.25-1.29
$1,001,356 Vol.
No
1.30-1.34
$778,593 Vol.
No
1.30-1.34
$778,593 Vol.
No
>1.34
$1,087,085 Vol.
Yes
>1.34
$1,087,085 Vol.
Yes
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for January 2025 shows an increase of less than 1.20°C when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An anomaly of less than 1.20°C for January 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for January 2025 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jan" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for January 2025 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Yes".
An anomaly of less than 1.20°C for January 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for January 2025 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jan" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for January 2025 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Yes".
Created At: Jan 13, 2025, 3:49 PM ET
Volume
$4,925,571End Date
Jan 31, 2025Created At
Jan 13, 2025, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
January 2025 Temperature Increase (ºC)
>1.34 100.0%
<1.20 <1%
1.20-1.24 <1%
1.25-1.29 <1%
$4,925,571 Vol.
$4,925,571 Vol.
Jan 31, 2025
<1.20
$1,059,734 Vol.
No
1.20-1.24
$998,803 Vol.
No
1.25-1.29
$1,001,356 Vol.
No
1.30-1.34
$778,593 Vol.
No
>1.34
$1,087,085 Vol.
Yes
About
Volume
$4,925,571End Date
Jan 31, 2025Created At
Jan 13, 2025, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...
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