Recent U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025 and early 2026 have substantially degraded enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, extending the estimated breakout timeline for weapons-grade material to roughly nine to twelve months or longer according to U.S. intelligence assessments as of May 2026. Ongoing diplomatic talks, including U.S. proposals for verifiable limits, combined with restricted IAEA access and trapped stockpiles of 60-percent enriched uranium, reinforce trader views that Iran faces significant barriers to acquiring a nuclear weapon before 2027 absent major escalation or reversal. These developments underpin the 92.7 percent implied probability on the negative outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$619,927 Vol.
$619,927 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$619,927 Vol.
$619,927 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".Recent U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025 and early 2026 have substantially degraded enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, extending the estimated breakout timeline for weapons-grade material to roughly nine to twelve months or longer according to U.S. intelligence assessments as of May 2026. Ongoing diplomatic talks, including U.S. proposals for verifiable limits, combined with restricted IAEA access and trapped stockpiles of 60-percent enriched uranium, reinforce trader views that Iran faces significant barriers to acquiring a nuclear weapon before 2027 absent major escalation or reversal. These developments underpin the 92.7 percent implied probability on the negative outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
マーケット開始日： Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET
音量
$619,927終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".Recent U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025 and early 2026 have substantially degraded enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, extending the estimated breakout timeline for weapons-grade material to roughly nine to twelve months or longer according to U.S. intelligence assessments as of May 2026. Ongoing diplomatic talks, including U.S. proposals for verifiable limits, combined with restricted IAEA access and trapped stockpiles of 60-percent enriched uranium, reinforce trader views that Iran faces significant barriers to acquiring a nuclear weapon before 2027 absent major escalation or reversal. These developments underpin the 92.7 percent implied probability on the negative outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
音量
$619,927終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025 and early 2026 have substantially degraded enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, extending the estimated breakout timeline for weapons-grade material to roughly nine to twelve months or longer according to U.S. intelligence assessments as of May 2026. Ongoing diplomatic talks, including U.S. proposals for verifiable limits, combined with restricted IAEA access and trapped stockpiles of 60-percent enriched uranium, reinforce trader views that Iran faces significant barriers to acquiring a nuclear weapon before 2027 absent major escalation or reversal. These developments underpin the 92.7 percent implied probability on the negative outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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