Extensive damage to Iran's nuclear infrastructure from Israeli and U.S. strikes through early 2026, including destroyed enrichment facilities, centrifuge production sites, and weapons-related compounds at locations such as Minzadehei and Taleghan 2, combined with the loss of key scientists, underpins trader consensus that a nuclear device is unlikely before 2027. IAEA inspectors have had no access since mid-2025, leaving stockpile status unverifiable, while diplomatic talks and external pressure continue to constrain breakout timelines. Recent satellite imagery shows cleanup and vehicle activity at damaged sites, yet reconstruction of weaponization capacity faces substantial technical and security barriers. Scenarios that could still shift odds include accelerated clandestine recovery of enriched uranium or a policy reversal enabling rapid testing within the narrow remaining window.