Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving the program largely dormant with no verified resumption of uranium enrichment or centrifuge operations. IAEA reports through September 2026 confirm inspectors lack access to key sites and the estimated 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium stockpile, while Iranian officials publicly reaffirm commitments against nuclear weapons and maintain the status quo under diplomatic frameworks. Trader consensus at 96% for no test before 2027 reflects this sustained degradation and international constraints on breakout. Remaining risks include undetected material recovery, accelerated underground construction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain, or a sudden policy reversal amid escalating tensions that could enable a rapid weapons pathway.