Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

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Iran military response by...?

$2,598,181 Vol.

OUTCOMERESULT

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a military strike against the U.S. military, inclusive of all U.S. military ships, planes, bases and other infrastructure, or on any U.S. territory, embassy, or consulate, between June 21, 2025 (inclusive) and 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Iranian missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market. Strikes on U.S. military unmanned aerial vehicles/projectiles and U.S. commercial/civilian ships will NOT count toward a "Yes" resolution.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks on the U.S. military by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting..
Volume
$2,598,181
End Date
Jun 30, 2025
Created At
Jun 22, 2025, 12:31 AM UTC

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

$2,598,181 Vol.

Market icon

Iran military response by...?

Sunday June  22

$98,527 Vol.

No

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Monday June  23

$1,913,320 Vol.

Yes

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Friday June  27

$258,414 Vol.

Yes

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Monday June  30

$327,920 Vol.

Yes

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About

Volume
$2,598,181
End Date
Jun 30, 2025
Created At
Jun 22, 2025, 12:31 AM UTC
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Beware of external links.