Holtec Nuclear's withdrawal of its SEC registration statement on September 25, 2026, after postponing its planned September pricing, underpins the 93.8% market-implied probability of no IPO before November 2026. The company had targeted up to $900 million in proceeds at a $10.2 billion valuation via 50 million shares priced at $15–$18, but cited weak equity sentiment, underperformance in recent nuclear listings, and uncertainty around data-center power demand as key factors impairing investor appetite. With the filing now withdrawn and no new roadshow announced amid ongoing rate pressures and sector volatility, trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of a rapid relaunch. A swift improvement in broader risk appetite or nuclear-specific sentiment could still enable a refiling and close before the deadline, though such a turnaround appears improbable given the compressed timeline.