Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Qingdao's highest temperature reaching exactly 22°C on May 2, driven by intraday observations at the resolving station—Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport (ZSQD)—peaking at that mark midday, as reported via Weather Underground. China Meteorological Administration (CMA) guidance and ensemble model runs from ECMWF and GFS align closely, citing persistent light rain, southerly winds at 3-4 levels, and coastal marine influence suppressing further intensification amid typical early-May climatology (historical highs averaging 20-22°C). Realistic challenges include abrupt cloud dissipation enabling late-afternoon solar heating to 23°C+, though low likelihood given steering patterns; final data expected post-midnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Qingdao on May 2?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on May 2?
22°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$22,029 Vol.
$22,029 Vol.
May 2, 2026
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
No
22°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$22,029 Vol.
$22,029 Vol.
May 2, 2026
18°C or below
$1,979 Vol.
No
19°C
$4,681 Vol.
No
20°C
$3,158 Vol.
No
21°C
$1,965 Vol.
No
22°C
$3,519 Vol.
Yes
23°C
$1,141 Vol.
No
24°C
$1,192 Vol.
No
25°C
$1,111 Vol.
No
26°C
$831 Vol.
No
27°C
$1,306 Vol.
No
28°C or higher
$1,147 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Qingdao's highest temperature reaching exactly 22°C on May 2, driven by intraday observations at the resolving station—Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport (ZSQD)—peaking at that mark midday, as reported via Weather Underground. China Meteorological Administration (CMA) guidance and ensemble model runs from ECMWF and GFS align closely, citing persistent light rain, southerly winds at 3-4 levels, and coastal marine influence suppressing further intensification amid typical early-May climatology (historical highs averaging 20-22°C). Realistic challenges include abrupt cloud dissipation enabling late-afternoon solar heating to 23°C+, though low likelihood given steering patterns; final data expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$22,029End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Qingdao's highest temperature reaching exactly 22°C on May 2, driven by intraday observations at the resolving station—Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport (ZSQD)—peaking at that mark midday, as reported via Weather Underground. China Meteorological Administration (CMA) guidance and ensemble model runs from ECMWF and GFS align closely, citing persistent light rain, southerly winds at 3-4 levels, and coastal marine influence suppressing further intensification amid typical early-May climatology (historical highs averaging 20-22°C). Realistic challenges include abrupt cloud dissipation enabling late-afternoon solar heating to 23°C+, though low likelihood given steering patterns; final data expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$22,029End Date
May 2, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Qingdao's highest temperature reaching exactly 22°C on May 2, driven by intraday observations at the resolving station—Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport (ZSQD)—peaking at that mark midday, as reported via Weather Underground. China Meteorological Administration (CMA) guidance and ensemble model runs from ECMWF and GFS align closely, citing persistent light rain, southerly winds at 3-4 levels, and coastal marine influence suppressing further intensification amid typical early-May climatology (historical highs averaging 20-22°C). Realistic challenges include abrupt cloud dissipation enabling late-afternoon solar heating to 23°C+, though low likelihood given steering patterns; final data expected post-midnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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