Recent forecast model consensus from European meteorological agencies points to a daily maximum of 31°C in Munich on August 2, driven by stable high-pressure conditions, clear skies, and light easterly winds that limit mixing and allow surface heating to peak near this value. Official observations and ensemble runs align closely with this threshold, consistent with typical early-August climatology for the region where highs often reach the low 30s under similar setups. Trader consensus at near-100% implied probability reflects this alignment and the narrow uncertainty range in short-range guidance. A meaningful deviation would require unexpected cloud cover, a frontal passage, or measurement discrepancies at the primary station, though current conditions make such shifts improbable before resolution.