Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a high temperature of 50°F or higher in Chicago on April 22, 2026, reflecting National Weather Service forecasts projecting afternoon highs of 65–75°F at O'Hare International Airport under partly sunny skies. This positioning stems from a persistent upper-level ridge fostering warm southwesterly flow and temperatures building on April's 5+ degree surplus—14 of 22 days above normal—following recent severe storms on April 17. Model consensus from NOAA ensembles shows ample heating potential after morning lows near 50°F, with light winds minimizing mixing. Realistic challenges include an unusually strong lake breeze surge or unforecast thunderstorms capping insolation, though synoptic patterns make sub-50°F highs improbable given historical April analogs averaging 62°F. Hourly observations will refine this through sunset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on April 22?
Highest temperature in Chicago on April 22?
50°F or higher 100.0%
31°F or below <1%
32-33°F <1%
34-35°F <1%
$84,023 Vol.
$84,023 Vol.
Apr 22, 2026
31°F or below
No
32-33°F
No
34-35°F
No
36-37°F
No
38-39°F
No
40-41°F
No
42-43°F
No
44-45°F
No
46-47°F
No
48-49°F
No
50°F or higher
Yes
50°F or higher 100.0%
31°F or below <1%
32-33°F <1%
34-35°F <1%
$84,023 Vol.
$84,023 Vol.
Apr 22, 2026
31°F or below
$23,984 Vol.
No
32-33°F
$3,904 Vol.
No
34-35°F
$2,664 Vol.
No
36-37°F
$3,165 Vol.
No
38-39°F
$3,268 Vol.
No
40-41°F
$2,754 Vol.
No
42-43°F
$2,709 Vol.
No
44-45°F
$4,713 Vol.
No
46-47°F
$3,271 Vol.
No
48-49°F
$7,150 Vol.
No
50°F or higher
$26,441 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a high temperature of 50°F or higher in Chicago on April 22, 2026, reflecting National Weather Service forecasts projecting afternoon highs of 65–75°F at O'Hare International Airport under partly sunny skies. This positioning stems from a persistent upper-level ridge fostering warm southwesterly flow and temperatures building on April's 5+ degree surplus—14 of 22 days above normal—following recent severe storms on April 17. Model consensus from NOAA ensembles shows ample heating potential after morning lows near 50°F, with light winds minimizing mixing. Realistic challenges include an unusually strong lake breeze surge or unforecast thunderstorms capping insolation, though synoptic patterns make sub-50°F highs improbable given historical April analogs averaging 62°F. Hourly observations will refine this through sunset.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 20, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$84,023End Date
Apr 22, 2026Market Opened
Apr 20, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a high temperature of 50°F or higher in Chicago on April 22, 2026, reflecting National Weather Service forecasts projecting afternoon highs of 65–75°F at O'Hare International Airport under partly sunny skies. This positioning stems from a persistent upper-level ridge fostering warm southwesterly flow and temperatures building on April's 5+ degree surplus—14 of 22 days above normal—following recent severe storms on April 17. Model consensus from NOAA ensembles shows ample heating potential after morning lows near 50°F, with light winds minimizing mixing. Realistic challenges include an unusually strong lake breeze surge or unforecast thunderstorms capping insolation, though synoptic patterns make sub-50°F highs improbable given historical April analogs averaging 62°F. Hourly observations will refine this through sunset.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$84,023End Date
Apr 22, 2026Market Opened
Apr 20, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a high temperature of 50°F or higher in Chicago on April 22, 2026, reflecting National Weather Service forecasts projecting afternoon highs of 65–75°F at O'Hare International Airport under partly sunny skies. This positioning stems from a persistent upper-level ridge fostering warm southwesterly flow and temperatures building on April's 5+ degree surplus—14 of 22 days above normal—following recent severe storms on April 17. Model consensus from NOAA ensembles shows ample heating potential after morning lows near 50°F, with light winds minimizing mixing. Realistic challenges include an unusually strong lake breeze surge or unforecast thunderstorms capping insolation, though synoptic patterns make sub-50°F highs improbable given historical April analogs averaging 62°F. Hourly observations will refine this through sunset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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