Name: Global Heat Increase 2024
Start: 2024-08-28T20:33:11.031052Z
End: 2024-12-31T12:00:00Z

Use the internal polymarket geolocation service.

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Improved notification preferences and types.

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Improved in-game view for sports markets.

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Enable updates from the sports websocket.

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This is a negrisk market group on the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2024 shows an increase of greater than 1.30°C when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly of greater than 1.30°C for 2024 will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for 2024 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2024 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No".

>1.30

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2024 shows an increase of less than 1.22°C when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly of less than 1.22°C for 2024 will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for 2024 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2024 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Yes".

<1.22

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2024 shows an increase between 1.22°C (inclusive) and 1.24°C (inclusive) when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly within the stated range for 2024 will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for 2024 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2024 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No".

1.22-1.24

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2024 shows an increase between 1.25°C (inclusive) and 1.27°C (inclusive) when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly within the stated range for 2024 will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for 2024 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2024 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No".

1.25-1.27

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2024 shows an increase between 1.28°C (inclusive) and 1.30°C (inclusive) when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly within the stated range for 2024 will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for 2024 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2024 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No".

1.28-1.30

Global Heat Increase 2024

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2025 shows an increase greater than that of any previously recorded year when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly greater than that of any previously recorded year for 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for 2024 and/or 2025 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2025 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Will 2025 be the hottest year on record?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2025 shows the second greatest increase of any previously recorded year when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly which is the second greatest of any previously recorded year for 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for 2024 and/or 2025 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2025 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record?

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.

If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.

This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for December 2025 versus the data points available for all other Decembers on record.

Note: If December 2025 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Dec" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for December 2025 is provided by NASA by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

Will December 2025 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1 percent or more over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2025 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2025 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2025 report is issued. Once the December 2025 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2025 is not issued by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Atlas global browser market share is at least the listed percentage on December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The relevant data will be sourced from StatCounter Global Stats, utilizing the following settings: Statistic: Browser; Checked: Desktop, Mobile, Tablet, Console; Region: Worldwide; Period: Daily (https://gs.statcounter.com/browser-market-share#daily-20251014-20251020).

Only the first released data will be considered; later revisions will not be used. 

If "Atlas" is not explicitly listed under these settings when data for this date is first released, this market will resolve to "No".

If the data is not reported by January 15, 2026, at 11:59 p.m. ET, or if the primary resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, an alternative resolution source will be selected.

Atlas global browser market share 1%+ on December 31?

This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.

Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between May 28, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2026, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.


Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2025?

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2025, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2025, scheduled for release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on January 30, 2026, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.

Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2025, which provides the initial full-year 2025 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.

Negative GDP growth in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between May 28, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2026, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.

5kt meteor strike in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if conclusive proof that the earth is flat becomes public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Is Earth flat?

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.

Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.

Negative GDP growth in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. 

After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for some time in January, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Will China GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 4.5% and 5.0%?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.

If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.

Will a hurricane form by May 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song released by GELO after March 31 is on the Billboard Hot 100 chart at any point between April 1, and December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Billboard (https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/).

Will GELO drop another Billboard top 100 hit in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the maximum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

This market will remain open until data has been published for April 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for April 1, 2026 will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market measures Arctic sea ice extent to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 14.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the maximum value recorded for any day between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen. 

Will the maximum Arctic sea ice extent this winter be between 14m & 14.2m square kilometers?

This market will resolve according to the number of named typhoons (i.e., storms assigned an official name) that occur in the Northwest Pacific basin between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59PM UTC, according to the official list published on the Digital Typhoon website by Japan’s National Institute of Informatics. (see: https://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/year/wnp/2025.html.en)

A “named typhoon” refers to any system officially assigned a name by the meteorological agencies responsible for the Western North Pacific basin. Only storms appearing on the 2025 list on the Digital Typhoon website will count.

If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by Nov 30, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until January 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.

Will 27 named typhoons occur in the Northwest Pacific in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rates over the same quarter of the previous year % change, based on seasonally adjusted data, in the first release of the "Gross domestic product: detailed economic performance results" press release for Q4 of 2025, expected to be released at the end of January 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html

If no data for the specified quarter is released by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports "on the same quarter a year earlier (price adjusted)" to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Will Germany GDP growth in Q4 2025 be exactly 0.2%?

This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for release on January 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Will Mexico GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 0.5% and 1.0%?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between June 9 and December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).

For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2025/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows 'A Minecraft Movie' (2025) as the film with the highest 2025 gross once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2025 - dates outside of 2025 will not count toward this movie's gross.

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?

On February 4, Donald Trump floated a plan for the reconstruction of Gaza including the relocation of Gaza’s population (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-netanyahu-set-pivotal-talks-middle-east-agenda-2025-02-04/)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least 500,000 Gazans leave the Gaza strip between February 6, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes the transfer of Gazans to Israel, the West Bank or other countries, as well as the departure of Gazans from the Gaza Strip through visa or refugee programs.

This market refers to the total number of Gazans who leave, regardless of method.  

Announcements of relocation plans will not count, only actual relocation will qualify.

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Gaza mass population relocation in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the price of the COMEX Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is $3,200.00 per troy ounce or greater as of the final market close price in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be COMEX trading data for the Gold Continuous Contract (https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GCW00:COMEX).

Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions prove true at any point in 2025:

1) The "US recession in 2025?" market resolves to "Yes" (https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-in-2025).

2) The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by 5.0% or more over the 12 month period ending in any month between April 2025 and December 2025 according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current)

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will not resolve until all relevant figures are reported for the period of time encompassing December 2025.

The resolution sources for this market will be the NBER, BEA (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product), and BLS (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current), as well as the "US recession in 2025?" market on Polymarket.

US stagflation in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed city records a daily snowfall of at least 0.1 inches for any day between December 1 and December 31, 2025, as recorded by the National Weather Service (NWS). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If a daily snowfall of at least 0.1 inches is recorded by the National Weather Service for the listed city, this market will resolve immediately to “Yes”. If no such snowfall has been recorded, this market may not resolve until the NWS Daily Climate Report for the listed city for December 31, 2025 has been published.

The relevant National Weather Service locations for this market will be Central Park NY (New York City), Dallas/Fort Worth, TX (Dallas), Miami, FL (Miami), Seattle-Tacoma, WA (Seattle), Washington-National (Washington D.C.), Phoenix, AZ (Phoenix), Philadelphia, PA (Philadelphia), Atlanta, GA (Atlanta), Boston (Logan Airport), MA (Boston), and Pittsburgh, PA (Pittsburgh).

The resolution source for this market will be the National Weather Service, specifically the figure for  "SNOWFALL (IN)" when "Daily Climate Report (CLI)"  is selected under "Observed Weather" after navigating to the relevant city & location from https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate.

Will it Snow in Seattle this December?

This market will resolve according to the EU GDP growth rates over the same quarter of the previous year % change, based on seasonally adjusted data, in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2025" flash release for Q4 of 2025, scheduled for January 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.0 and 1.5%?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tim Cook is no longer serving as CEO of Apple for any length of time from the date of this market's inception, December 29, 2024 through December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Tim Cook's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Apple and/or Tim Cook, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.

Tim Cook out as Apple CEO in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Greenland from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.

An official announcement made by the United States and Denmark that Greenland will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Greenland, and Denmark , however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Greenland has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.

Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?

The IPCA (t. Broad National Consumer Price Index) is the official inflation rate measure used by the Brazilian government, tracked by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The IPCA reflects the cost of living for households across urban areas in Brazil, measuring changes in prices for a diverse set of goods and services.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 12-month IPCA for December 2025 is below 5.50%. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve according to IBGE's (https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/indicators#ipca) public release of 12 month IPCA figure for December 2025, expected in January 2026. If the publication of this figure is delayed beyond February 28, 2026 ET, this market will resolve according to the last published figure.

Because this market's resolution source reports inflation over 12 month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.56%), this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Brazil’s 12-month inflation below 5.50% for December 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Google Gemini 3 model with a score of at least the specified score by the specified January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.

Global Heat Increase 2024

<1.22
$1,851,495 Vol.
No

1.22-1.24
$9,466,873 Vol.
No

1.25-1.27
$1,731,345 Vol.
No

1.28-1.30
$480,839 Vol.
Yes

>1.30
$939,019 Vol.
No

Market Context

Global Heat Increase 2024

Rules

Global Heat Increase 2024

Market Context

Global Heat Increase 2024

About

Related

Global Heat Increase 2024

<1.22$1,851,495 Vol.Nocircle xmark

1.22-1.24$9,466,873 Vol.Nocircle xmark

1.25-1.27$1,731,345 Vol.Nocircle xmark

1.28-1.30$480,839 Vol.Yescircle check

>1.30$939,019 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

Global Heat Increase 2024

Rules

Global Heat Increase 2024

Market Context

Global Heat Increase 2024

About

Related

<1.22
$1,851,495 Vol.
No

1.22-1.24
$9,466,873 Vol.
No

1.25-1.27
$1,731,345 Vol.
No

1.28-1.30
$480,839 Vol.
Yes

>1.30
$939,019 Vol.
No