Recent generic congressional ballot surveys released around August 24 show Democrats holding a 6.6–6.7 point advantage over Republicans, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the dominant market outcome. This positioning draws from cumulative polling trends, voter sentiment on economic conditions, and policy debates over immigration, healthcare, and federal spending that have shaped preferences in battleground districts. The narrow range commands high implied probability because multiple recent releases clustered near that margin without major late swings. Scenarios that could still alter the final reported figure include revisions from additional pollsters, adjustments in weighting for turnout or demographics, or rapid shifts in public response to breaking legislative or campaign developments before the survey period closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDems +6.6–6.7% 100%
Dems +7.2%+ <1%
Dems +7.0–7.1% <1%
Dems +6.8–6.9% <1%
$1,063 Vol.
$1,063 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
Dems +7.2%+
No
Dems +7.0–7.1%
No
Dems +6.8–6.9%
No
Dems +6.6–6.7%
Yes
Dems +6.4–6.5%
No
Dems +6.3% or lower
No
Dems +6.6–6.7% 100%
Dems +7.2%+ <1%
Dems +7.0–7.1% <1%
Dems +6.8–6.9% <1%
$1,063 Vol.
$1,063 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
Dems +7.2%+
$0 Vol.
No
Dems +7.0–7.1%
$370 Vol.
No
Dems +6.8–6.9%
$133 Vol.
No
Dems +6.6–6.7%
$385 Vol.
Yes
Dems +6.4–6.5%
$93 Vol.
No
Dems +6.3% or lower
$83 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the difference in the Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages for Democrats and Republicans for August 24, 2026.
The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading.
In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied.
The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point.Recent generic congressional ballot surveys released around August 24 show Democrats holding a 6.6–6.7 point advantage over Republicans, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the dominant market outcome. This positioning draws from cumulative polling trends, voter sentiment on economic conditions, and policy debates over immigration, healthcare, and federal spending that have shaped preferences in battleground districts. The narrow range commands high implied probability because multiple recent releases clustered near that margin without major late swings. Scenarios that could still alter the final reported figure include revisions from additional pollsters, adjustments in weighting for turnout or demographics, or rapid shifts in public response to breaking legislative or campaign developments before the survey period closes.
This market will resolve according to the difference in the Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages for Democrats and Republicans for August 24, 2026.
The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading.
In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied.
The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point.
The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading.
In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied.
The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 3:06 PM ET
Volume
$1,063End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47de9d...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the difference in the Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages for Democrats and Republicans for August 24, 2026.
The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading.
In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied.
The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point.Recent generic congressional ballot surveys released around August 24 show Democrats holding a 6.6–6.7 point advantage over Republicans, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the dominant market outcome. This positioning draws from cumulative polling trends, voter sentiment on economic conditions, and policy debates over immigration, healthcare, and federal spending that have shaped preferences in battleground districts. The narrow range commands high implied probability because multiple recent releases clustered near that margin without major late swings. Scenarios that could still alter the final reported figure include revisions from additional pollsters, adjustments in weighting for turnout or demographics, or rapid shifts in public response to breaking legislative or campaign developments before the survey period closes.
This market will resolve according to the difference in the Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages for Democrats and Republicans for August 24, 2026.
The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading.
In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied.
The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point.
The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading.
In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied.
The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point.
Volume
$1,063End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47de9d...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent generic congressional ballot surveys released around August 24 show Democrats holding a 6.6–6.7 point advantage over Republicans, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the dominant market outcome. This positioning draws from cumulative polling trends, voter sentiment on economic conditions, and policy debates over immigration, healthcare, and federal spending that have shaped preferences in battleground districts. The narrow range commands high implied probability because multiple recent releases clustered near that margin without major late swings. Scenarios that could still alter the final reported figure include revisions from additional pollsters, adjustments in weighting for turnout or demographics, or rapid shifts in public response to breaking legislative or campaign developments before the survey period closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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