Raphaël Glucksmann holds an overwhelming edge in trader consensus for first-round victory in the October 9-10 Socialist primary because of sustained endorsements from regional PS figures, his stronger national polling against the far right, and preparation for the September 23 LCI debate alongside Faure, Guedj, Maurel, and Royal. The exclusion of Philippe Brun over violence allegations narrowed the field and removed a vocal critic, while Faure’s late entry and Royal’s return have not shifted momentum. Traders price the remaining candidates low given Glucksmann’s cross-party backing within the social-democratic space and the primary’s focus on selecting a viable 2027 presidential contender. The first-round electronic vote among militants and sympathizers runs through October 10, with a potential runoff the following week.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRaphaël Glucksmann 88%
Olivier Faure 8%
Jérôme Guedj 4.0%
Ségolène Royal 3.8%
NEW
NEW
Oct 10, 2026
Raphaël Glucksmann
88%
Olivier Faure
8%
Jérôme Guedj
4%
Ségolène Royal
4%
Philippe Brun
1%
Emmanuel Maurel
<1%
Raphaël Glucksmann 88%
Olivier Faure 8%
Jérôme Guedj 4.0%
Ségolène Royal 3.8%
NEW
NEW
Oct 10, 2026
Raphaël Glucksmann
$3,264 Vol.
88%
Olivier Faure
$316 Vol.
8%
Jérôme Guedj
$240 Vol.
4%
Ségolène Royal
$774 Vol.
4%
Philippe Brun
$194 Vol.
1%
Emmanuel Maurel
$240 Vol.
<1%
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.Raphaël Glucksmann holds an overwhelming edge in trader consensus for first-round victory in the October 9-10 Socialist primary because of sustained endorsements from regional PS figures, his stronger national polling against the far right, and preparation for the September 23 LCI debate alongside Faure, Guedj, Maurel, and Royal. The exclusion of Philippe Brun over violence allegations narrowed the field and removed a vocal critic, while Faure’s late entry and Royal’s return have not shifted momentum. Traders price the remaining candidates low given Glucksmann’s cross-party backing within the social-democratic space and the primary’s focus on selecting a viable 2027 presidential contender. The first-round electronic vote among militants and sympathizers runs through October 10, with a potential runoff the following week.
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Volume
$5,029End Date
Oct 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.Raphaël Glucksmann holds an overwhelming edge in trader consensus for first-round victory in the October 9-10 Socialist primary because of sustained endorsements from regional PS figures, his stronger national polling against the far right, and preparation for the September 23 LCI debate alongside Faure, Guedj, Maurel, and Royal. The exclusion of Philippe Brun over violence allegations narrowed the field and removed a vocal critic, while Faure’s late entry and Royal’s return have not shifted momentum. Traders price the remaining candidates low given Glucksmann’s cross-party backing within the social-democratic space and the primary’s focus on selecting a viable 2027 presidential contender. The first-round electronic vote among militants and sympathizers runs through October 10, with a potential runoff the following week.
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Volume
$5,029End Date
Oct 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Raphaël Glucksmann holds an overwhelming edge in trader consensus for first-round victory in the October 9-10 Socialist primary because of sustained endorsements from regional PS figures, his stronger national polling against the far right, and preparation for the September 23 LCI debate alongside Faure, Guedj, Maurel, and Royal. The exclusion of Philippe Brun over violence allegations narrowed the field and removed a vocal critic, while Faure’s late entry and Royal’s return have not shifted momentum. Traders price the remaining candidates low given Glucksmann’s cross-party backing within the social-democratic space and the primary’s focus on selecting a viable 2027 presidential contender. The first-round electronic vote among militants and sympathizers runs through October 10, with a potential runoff the following week.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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