Skip to main content

icon for Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?
Geopolitics·Iran

Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?

icon for Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?
Geopolitics·Iran

Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?

>99% chance
Polymarket

$28,623,187 Vol.

>99% chance
Polymarket

$28,623,187 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP) in Iran is destroyed by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, “destroyed” means that the underground enrichment facilities housing centrifuges are rendered non-functional, either through physical destruction, collapse, or targeted strike. Destruction of the centrifuges at Fordow through cyberattacks with out the destruction of the facilities will not qualify. Reports that Fordow was attacked or struck, or confirmation of damage to above-ground structures or auxiliary buildings will not alone suffice. The primary resolution source will be official confirmation from Iran or the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirming the site has been destroyed; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP) in Iran is destroyed by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, “destroyed” means that the underground enrichment facilities housing centrifuges are rendered non-functional, either through physical destruction, collapse, or targeted strike.

Destruction of the centrifuges at Fordow through cyberattacks with out the destruction of the facilities will not qualify.

Reports that Fordow was attacked or struck, or confirmation of damage to above-ground structures or auxiliary buildings will not alone suffice.

The primary resolution source will be official confirmation from Iran or the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirming the site has been destroyed; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$28,623,187
End Date
Jun 30, 2025
Market Opened
Jun 15, 2025, 3:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x6A9D22261...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP) in Iran is destroyed by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, “destroyed” means that the underground enrichment facilities housing centrifuges are rendered non-functional, either through physical destruction, collapse, or targeted strike. Destruction of the centrifuges at Fordow through cyberattacks with out the destruction of the facilities will not qualify. Reports that Fordow was attacked or struck, or confirmation of damage to above-ground structures or auxiliary buildings will not alone suffice. The primary resolution source will be official confirmation from Iran or the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirming the site has been destroyed; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP) in Iran is destroyed by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, “destroyed” means that the underground enrichment facilities housing centrifuges are rendered non-functional, either through physical destruction, collapse, or targeted strike. Destruction of the centrifuges at Fordow through cyberattacks with out the destruction of the facilities will not qualify. Reports that Fordow was attacked or struck, or confirmation of damage to above-ground structures or auxiliary buildings will not alone suffice. The primary resolution source will be official confirmation from Iran or the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirming the site has been destroyed; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP) in Iran is destroyed by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, “destroyed” means that the underground enrichment facilities housing centrifuges are rendered non-functional, either through physical destruction, collapse, or targeted strike.

Destruction of the centrifuges at Fordow through cyberattacks with out the destruction of the facilities will not qualify.

Reports that Fordow was attacked or struck, or confirmation of damage to above-ground structures or auxiliary buildings will not alone suffice.

The primary resolution source will be official confirmation from Iran or the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirming the site has been destroyed; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$28,623,187
End Date
Jun 30, 2025
Market Opened
Jun 15, 2025, 3:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x6A9D22261...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP) in Iran is destroyed by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, “destroyed” means that the underground enrichment facilities housing centrifuges are rendered non-functional, either through physical destruction, collapse, or targeted strike. Destruction of the centrifuges at Fordow through cyberattacks with out the destruction of the facilities will not qualify. Reports that Fordow was attacked or struck, or confirmation of damage to above-ground structures or auxiliary buildings will not alone suffice. The primary resolution source will be official confirmation from Iran or the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirming the site has been destroyed; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Final outcome: Yes

Related

icon for Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

25%
icon for US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

29%
icon for Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

45%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 100% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 100¢, the market collectively assigns a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?" has generated $28.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 15, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?" is 100% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.