Erdoğan's presidential term extends through 2028, with his Justice and Development Party and allies controlling sufficient parliamentary seats to pursue an early election mechanism that would enable another candidacy under constitutional rules. Recent statements from senior advisers and ministers confirm preparations for a 2028 vote, while Erdoğan continues active engagement in foreign policy, domestic governance, and party affairs without indications of imminent departure. The opposition faces ongoing legal and organizational challenges that limit near-term pressure. Traders price the 95.5% probability on "No" around this structural timeline and absence of acute catalysts. Rare shifts could still arise from sudden health events, major internal party fractures, or unforeseen parliamentary realignments before year-end.