The May 2026 Core CPI year-over-year release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, reported today at 8:30 a.m. ET, came in precisely at 2.9 percent and aligned with economist forecasts, driving the market-implied probability for that outcome to 100 percent. This figure marked a 0.1 percentage point increase from April’s 2.8 percent print, reflecting contributions from shelter costs, transportation services, and medical care amid a 0.2 percent month-over-month core gain. With the official data now available and matching consensus expectations, trader positioning reflects near-certainty based on the verified release rather than forward-looking estimates. Any post-release revisions or alternative data interpretations remain the only realistic, albeit low-probability, factors that could influence residual market activity before full resolution.