Recent polling in Ceará shows a tight contest for the state's two Senate seats, with Cid Gomes (PSB) and Capitão Wagner (União) frequently leading or tied in combined first- and second-choice measures, while Luizianne Lins (Rede) trails closely behind and Alcides Fernandes (PL) remains further back. Latest surveys from late September, including Paraná Pesquisas and Quaest, indicate technical ties among the top three within margins of error, reflecting stable voter preferences ahead of the October election. Trader pricing for second place—favoring Wagner and Luizianne over Cid—aligns with patterns where Cid often ranks first in head-to-head scenarios. Limited recent shifts in alliances or turnout indicators have kept probabilities compressed, with separation likely depending on final-week mobilization among opposition and government-aligned bases.