Recent polling from Quaest and Datafolha shows a tight three-way contest for Ceará’s two Senate seats, with Cid Gomes (PSB) at 24-25%, Capitão Wagner (União) at 21%, and Luizianne Lins (Rede) at 18-19% in combined first- and second-choice intentions, all within the margin of error. Voters cast two ballots, amplifying uncertainty over final ordering and keeping second-place probabilities closely bunched. Luizianne has gained ground in the latest surveys while Cid maintains a narrow numerical lead; both align with the state government coalition, while Wagner backs the opposition. With roughly 10-16% undecided or blank and the October 4 vote imminent, late shifts in turnout or cross-ticket preferences among the main alliances remain the primary variables that could reorder the top finishers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCapitão Wagner 40%
Luizianne 39%
Cid Gomes 21%
Alcides Fernandes 5.4%
$37,058 Vol.
$37,058 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Capitão Wagner
40%
Luizianne
39%
Cid Gomes
21%
Alcides Fernandes
5%
Guilherme Theophilo
1%
Catarina Matos
<1%
Lino Alves
<1%
Reginaldo
<1%
Capitão Wagner 40%
Luizianne 39%
Cid Gomes 21%
Alcides Fernandes 5.4%
$37,058 Vol.
$37,058 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Capitão Wagner
$14,404 Vol.
40%
Luizianne
$11,700 Vol.
39%
Cid Gomes
$5,265 Vol.
21%
Alcides Fernandes
$1,122 Vol.
5%
Guilherme Theophilo
$833 Vol.
1%
Catarina Matos
$1,541 Vol.
<1%
Lino Alves
$946 Vol.
<1%
Reginaldo
$1,247 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Quaest and Datafolha shows a tight three-way contest for Ceará’s two Senate seats, with Cid Gomes (PSB) at 24-25%, Capitão Wagner (União) at 21%, and Luizianne Lins (Rede) at 18-19% in combined first- and second-choice intentions, all within the margin of error. Voters cast two ballots, amplifying uncertainty over final ordering and keeping second-place probabilities closely bunched. Luizianne has gained ground in the latest surveys while Cid maintains a narrow numerical lead; both align with the state government coalition, while Wagner backs the opposition. With roughly 10-16% undecided or blank and the October 4 vote imminent, late shifts in turnout or cross-ticket preferences among the main alliances remain the primary variables that could reorder the top finishers.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ET
Volume
$37,058End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47de9d...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Quaest and Datafolha shows a tight three-way contest for Ceará’s two Senate seats, with Cid Gomes (PSB) at 24-25%, Capitão Wagner (União) at 21%, and Luizianne Lins (Rede) at 18-19% in combined first- and second-choice intentions, all within the margin of error. Voters cast two ballots, amplifying uncertainty over final ordering and keeping second-place probabilities closely bunched. Luizianne has gained ground in the latest surveys while Cid maintains a narrow numerical lead; both align with the state government coalition, while Wagner backs the opposition. With roughly 10-16% undecided or blank and the October 4 vote imminent, late shifts in turnout or cross-ticket preferences among the main alliances remain the primary variables that could reorder the top finishers.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$37,058End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47de9d...Recent polling from Quaest and Datafolha shows a tight three-way contest for Ceará’s two Senate seats, with Cid Gomes (PSB) at 24-25%, Capitão Wagner (União) at 21%, and Luizianne Lins (Rede) at 18-19% in combined first- and second-choice intentions, all within the margin of error. Voters cast two ballots, amplifying uncertainty over final ordering and keeping second-place probabilities closely bunched. Luizianne has gained ground in the latest surveys while Cid maintains a narrow numerical lead; both align with the state government coalition, while Wagner backs the opposition. With roughly 10-16% undecided or blank and the October 4 vote imminent, late shifts in turnout or cross-ticket preferences among the main alliances remain the primary variables that could reorder the top finishers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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