California voters will decide Proposition 37 on November 3, 2026, which would authorize the California Housing Finance Agency to issue up to $25 billion in revenue bonds for a second-mortgage program offering eligible middle-income buyers up to 17 percent of the purchase price on qualifying new homes. The measure qualified for the ballot after collecting nearly double the required signatures, reflecting organized support from construction unions, nurses associations, and State Treasurer Fiona Ma. Its structure—bonds repaid solely through borrower mortgage payments with no direct state or local costs—has shaped trader assessments of passage likelihood. Housing affordability remains a dominant voter concern, and the program’s focus on new construction and income limits up to 200 percent of area median income aligns with broader legislative efforts on homeownership assistance. Current implied probabilities reflect these structural and coalition factors ahead of the general election.