**Proposition 37, the citizen-initiated measure authorizing up to $25 billion in revenue bonds for CalHFA to offer second mortgages covering up to 17% of the purchase price on qualifying new homes for buyers at or below 200% of area median income, leads with 71.5% implied probability for passage.** The program requires at least 3% down from buyers, one year of California residency, primary occupancy, and repayment solely through borrower mortgage payments with no direct state or local fiscal cost. Recent factors supporting the odds include a June 2026 PPIC poll showing 53% favor among likely voters (with stronger renter support), qualification via nearly 900,000 signatures, placement on the November 3, 2026 ballot, and the absence of organized opposition or arguments in the official voter guide. Backing from labor groups, veterans' organizations, and housing advocates, combined with emphasis on tying assistance to new construction to expand supply, has sustained trader consensus ahead of the election. No major counter-campaign or polling shifts have emerged in the past month.