"Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET" is a 4-hour prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell shares on whether Bitcoin's price will finish higher ("Up") or lower ("Down") than its opening price over the 4-hour window specified in the title. The current market probability is 100% for "Down." A price of 100% means the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. Prices update in real-time as traders react to live Bitcoin price movements. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET" is an active short-term market on Polymarket. Trading volume can accumulate quickly as the 4-hour window progresses — jump in early to help set the odds before this window closes.

To trade on "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET," decide whether you believe Bitcoin's price will finish above or below the opening "Price to Beat" by 8:00PM ET. Buy "Up" if you think the price will rise, or "Down" if you think it will fall. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct at resolution, each share pays out $1.00. If incorrect, shares are worth $0. Because this market resolves in 4 hours, the window to exit your position before resolution is short — trade with that in mind.

This 4-hour window has closed and resolved. The final outcome was "Down." Use the time-range navigation bar at the top of this page to view adjacent windows or find the current live market.

The "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET" market resolves based on whether Bitcoin's price at the end of the 4-hour window is greater than or equal to its price at the start of that window — if so, the outcome is "Up"; otherwise it is "Down." The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD data stream. You can review the complete resolution criteria and data source in the "Rules" section on this page. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and data sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. Each "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET" page shows the live "Price to Beat" (Bitcoin's opening reference price for this window), the current live Bitcoin price, and real-time Up/Down probabilities. Because each market window lasts 4 hours, individual pages resolve quickly — use the time-range navigation features at the top of the page to jump between windows and track how odds evolved across multiple intervals. You can also view the Order Book and Activity tab for a real-time feed of trade flow.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs. “Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET” is still building its trading base for this window, so the current Up/Down probabilities may reflect only a small number of trades. As more participants enter before the window closes, the odds will become increasingly robust. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s overall prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page — or navigate to the current active 4-hour window using the navigation bar at the top of the page — select "Buy Up" or "Buy Down," enter your amount, and click "Trade." If the window shown in the title has already closed, use the navigation bar to find the current live window. If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 100¢ for "Down" in the "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 100% chance that Bitcoin's price will finish down over this 4-hour window. If you buy "Down" shares at 100¢ and Bitcoin finishes in that direction, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 0¢ per share. If Bitcoin moves the other way, those shares are worth $0. Over a 4-hour window, prices shift as broader trends and market sentiment develop.

This 4-hour window closed at 8:00PM ET and has been resolved. The final outcome was "Down." Use the navigation bar at the top of this page to view adjacent windows or find the current live market.

The "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET" market has 245 comments where traders share their analysis and react to live Bitcoin price movements. Scroll down to the comments section to read what other participants think. You can also check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades on this window.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture — including 4-hour Bitcoin direction markets like "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.