"Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4PM ET" is a hourly prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell shares on whether Bitcoin's price will finish higher ("Up") or lower ("Down") than its opening price over the hourly window specified in the title. The current market probability is 100% for "Up." A price of 100% means the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. Prices update in real-time as traders react to live Bitcoin price movements. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4PM ET" is an active short-term market on Polymarket. Trading volume can accumulate quickly as the hourly window progresses — jump in early to help set the odds before this window closes.

To trade on "Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4PM ET," decide whether you believe Bitcoin's price will close higher ("Up") or lower ("Down") at the end of the hourly candle beginning at 4:00PM ET. Buy "Up" if you think the close price will be higher than the open, or "Down" if you think it will be lower. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct at resolution, each share pays out $1.00. If incorrect, shares are worth $0.

This hourly window has closed and resolved. The final outcome was "Up." Use the time-range navigation bar at the top of this page to view adjacent windows or find the current live market.

The "Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4PM ET" market resolves based on whether the closing price of the Bitcoin/USDT 1-hour candle beginning at 4:00PM ET on Binance is greater than or equal to its opening price — if so, the outcome is "Up"; otherwise it is "Down." The resolution source is Binance (BTC/USDT). You can review the complete resolution criteria and data source in the "Rules" section on this page.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. Each "Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4PM ET" page displays a live countdown timer showing how much time remains in the current hour, alongside real-time Up/Down probabilities. Use the time-range navigation features at the top of the page to browse past and upcoming hourly windows. You can also view the Order Book and Activity tab for a real-time feed of trade flow.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs. “Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4PM ET” is still building its trading base for this window, so the current Up/Down probabilities may reflect only a small number of trades. As more participants enter before the window closes, the odds will become increasingly robust. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s overall prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4PM ET," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page — or navigate to the current active hourly window using the navigation bar at the top of the page — select "Buy Up" or "Buy Down," enter your amount, and click "Trade." If the window shown in the title has already closed, use the navigation bar to find the current live window. If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough.

This hourly window closed at 5:00PM ET and has been resolved. The final outcome was "Up." Use the navigation bar at the top of this page to view adjacent windows or find the current live market.

The "Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4PM ET" market has 14,645 comments where traders share their analysis and react to live Bitcoin price movements. Scroll down to the comments section to read what other participants think. You can also check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades on this window.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture — including hourly Bitcoin direction markets like "Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4PM ET." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.