Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño-3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.5°C and still intensifying, combined with record global sea-surface temperatures peaking at 21.1°C in late August, have driven August 2026 surface temperatures to levels aligning closely with the market's dominant 1.38–1.41°C bin. Long-term anthropogenic warming provides the baseline elevation, while the developing El Niño supplies the additional boost evident in Copernicus ERA5 and other reanalyses showing this August among the warmest on record. Trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability reflects these verified observational trends and model consensus on ENSO-driven warmth. Final dataset revisions or differences across agencies could still shift the precise anomaly within narrow bounds, though a move outside the leading range appears unlikely given the strength of current signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
1.38–1.41ºC 93%
1.42–1.45ºC 5%
1.34–1.37ºC 1.3%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,513 Vol.
$20,513 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<1.30ºC
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
1%
1.38–1.41ºC
93%
1.42–1.45ºC
5%
>1.45ºC
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC 93%
1.42–1.45ºC 5%
1.34–1.37ºC 1.3%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,513 Vol.
$20,513 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<1.30ºC
$657 Vol.
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
$1,462 Vol.
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
$3,129 Vol.
1%
1.38–1.41ºC
$4,488 Vol.
93%
1.42–1.45ºC
$9,247 Vol.
5%
>1.45ºC
$1,531 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño-3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.5°C and still intensifying, combined with record global sea-surface temperatures peaking at 21.1°C in late August, have driven August 2026 surface temperatures to levels aligning closely with the market's dominant 1.38–1.41°C bin. Long-term anthropogenic warming provides the baseline elevation, while the developing El Niño supplies the additional boost evident in Copernicus ERA5 and other reanalyses showing this August among the warmest on record. Trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability reflects these verified observational trends and model consensus on ENSO-driven warmth. Final dataset revisions or differences across agencies could still shift the precise anomaly within narrow bounds, though a move outside the leading range appears unlikely given the strength of current signals.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Volume
$20,513End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño-3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.5°C and still intensifying, combined with record global sea-surface temperatures peaking at 21.1°C in late August, have driven August 2026 surface temperatures to levels aligning closely with the market's dominant 1.38–1.41°C bin. Long-term anthropogenic warming provides the baseline elevation, while the developing El Niño supplies the additional boost evident in Copernicus ERA5 and other reanalyses showing this August among the warmest on record. Trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability reflects these verified observational trends and model consensus on ENSO-driven warmth. Final dataset revisions or differences across agencies could still shift the precise anomaly within narrow bounds, though a move outside the leading range appears unlikely given the strength of current signals.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$20,513End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño-3.4 anomalies exceeding +2.5°C and still intensifying, combined with record global sea-surface temperatures peaking at 21.1°C in late August, have driven August 2026 surface temperatures to levels aligning closely with the market's dominant 1.38–1.41°C bin. Long-term anthropogenic warming provides the baseline elevation, while the developing El Niño supplies the additional boost evident in Copernicus ERA5 and other reanalyses showing this August among the warmest on record. Trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability reflects these verified observational trends and model consensus on ENSO-driven warmth. Final dataset revisions or differences across agencies could still shift the precise anomaly within narrow bounds, though a move outside the leading range appears unlikely given the strength of current signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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