Omar Aziz (PSD) leads the Amazonas governor race at 86.5% implied probability following his 40.63% first-round finish on October 4, 2026, which advanced him to the October 25 runoff against Professora Maria do Carmo (PL) at 24.49%. Aziz secured victories in 53 of 62 municipalities, drawing broad interior support and benefiting from his established record as a former governor and senator plus a coalition spanning PSD, MDB, Republicanos, and PT allies. Maria do Carmo placed second despite topping the vote in Manaus and a handful of other cities, while third-place finisher Roberto Cidade (União Brasil) at 21.91% was eliminated along with lower-polling candidates. Pre-election surveys had consistently shown Aziz ahead, with his first-round margin and geographic edge translating into strong trader consensus for a runoff victory despite the remaining contest.