Elon Musk’s baseline posting pace of 25–35 times per day on X has anchored trader expectations for the August 14–21 window near 200–239 tweets, with the 220–239 bin holding the clearest lead at 38.4%. Market participants cite his steady mix of replies, quotes, and original posts, tempered by the absence of major breaking Tesla or SpaceX catalysts that typically trigger higher-volume days. Minor adjustments in odds reflect routine platform activity rather than any outsized news cycle, and the final tally will lock in within hours as the period closes. Historical weekly patterns support this tight cluster, though an unexpected late-week announcement could still nudge totals toward the adjacent 240–259 range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated220-239 39.3%
200-219 26.1%
240-259 21.6%
260-279 7.8%
$3,471,344 Vol.
$3,471,344 Vol.
Aug 21, 2026
180-199
1%
200-219
26%
220-239
39%
240-259
22%
260-279
8%
280-299
3%
300-319
1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
220-239 39.3%
200-219 26.1%
240-259 21.6%
260-279 7.8%
$3,471,344 Vol.
$3,471,344 Vol.
Aug 21, 2026
180-199
$335,296 Vol.
1%
200-219
$231,661 Vol.
26%
220-239
$201,561 Vol.
39%
240-259
$228,233 Vol.
22%
260-279
$225,812 Vol.
8%
280-299
$201,268 Vol.
3%
300-319
$162,001 Vol.
1%
320-339
$176,770 Vol.
<1%
340-359
$96,444 Vol.
<1%
360-379
$90,443 Vol.
<1%
380-399
$73,538 Vol.
<1%
400-419
$49,243 Vol.
<1%
420-439
$22,628 Vol.
<1%
440-459
$21,631 Vol.
<1%
460-479
$7,646 Vol.
<1%
480-499
$7,646 Vol.
<1%
500+
$49,717 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 14 12:00 PM ET to August 21, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s baseline posting pace of 25–35 times per day on X has anchored trader expectations for the August 14–21 window near 200–239 tweets, with the 220–239 bin holding the clearest lead at 38.4%. Market participants cite his steady mix of replies, quotes, and original posts, tempered by the absence of major breaking Tesla or SpaceX catalysts that typically trigger higher-volume days. Minor adjustments in odds reflect routine platform activity rather than any outsized news cycle, and the final tally will lock in within hours as the period closes. Historical weekly patterns support this tight cluster, though an unexpected late-week announcement could still nudge totals toward the adjacent 240–259 range.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 14 12:00 PM ET to August 21, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Volume
$3,471,344End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 14 12:00 PM ET to August 21, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s baseline posting pace of 25–35 times per day on X has anchored trader expectations for the August 14–21 window near 200–239 tweets, with the 220–239 bin holding the clearest lead at 38.4%. Market participants cite his steady mix of replies, quotes, and original posts, tempered by the absence of major breaking Tesla or SpaceX catalysts that typically trigger higher-volume days. Minor adjustments in odds reflect routine platform activity rather than any outsized news cycle, and the final tally will lock in within hours as the period closes. Historical weekly patterns support this tight cluster, though an unexpected late-week announcement could still nudge totals toward the adjacent 240–259 range.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 14 12:00 PM ET to August 21, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$3,471,344End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s baseline posting pace of 25–35 times per day on X has anchored trader expectations for the August 14–21 window near 200–239 tweets, with the 220–239 bin holding the clearest lead at 38.4%. Market participants cite his steady mix of replies, quotes, and original posts, tempered by the absence of major breaking Tesla or SpaceX catalysts that typically trigger higher-volume days. Minor adjustments in odds reflect routine platform activity rather than any outsized news cycle, and the final tally will lock in within hours as the period closes. Historical weekly patterns support this tight cluster, though an unexpected late-week announcement could still nudge totals toward the adjacent 240–259 range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions