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Finanzas·Freddie Mac

¿La tasa hipotecaria a 30 años llegará a __ en 2026?

Market icon
Finanzas·Freddie Mac

¿La tasa hipotecaria a 30 años llegará a __ en 2026?

$43,345 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$43,345 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ 7,00%

$13 Vol.

41%

↑ 6,75%

$0 Vol.

49%

↑ 6,50%

$6,451 Vol.

84%

↓ 5,90%

$0 Vol.

47%

↓ 5,70%

$6,769 Vol.

45%

↓ 5.50%

$0 Vol.

50%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or above the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.The 30-year fixed mortgage rate, averaging 6.38% as of March 26 per Freddie Mac—up 16 basis points weekly—tracks the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.44%, reflecting trader caution after the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in its March 18 meeting amid stable February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and unemployment ticking to 4.4%. Persistent services inflation tempers aggressive rate-cut expectations, keeping mortgage spreads elevated. Forecasts diverge, with Fannie Mae projecting 5.9% by year-end versus MBA's 6.4% average, implying potential for sub-6% dips if disinflation accelerates. Key catalysts include the April 4 nonfarm payrolls, mid-April CPI, and late-April FOMC for policy signals shaping the 2026 trajectory.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate, averaging 6.38% as of March 26 per Freddie Mac—up 16 basis points weekly—tracks the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.44%, reflecting trader caution after the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in its March 18 meeting amid stable February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and unemployment ticking to 4.4%. Persistent services inflation tempers aggressive rate-cut expectations, keeping mortgage spreads elevated. Forecasts diverge, with Fannie Mae projecting 5.9% by year-end versus MBA's 6.4% average, implying potential for sub-6% dips if disinflation accelerates. Key catalysts include the April 4 nonfarm payrolls, mid-April CPI, and late-April FOMC for policy signals shaping the 2026 trajectory.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or above the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.The 30-year fixed mortgage rate, averaging 6.38% as of March 26 per Freddie Mac—up 16 basis points weekly—tracks the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.44%, reflecting trader caution after the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in its March 18 meeting amid stable February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and unemployment ticking to 4.4%. Persistent services inflation tempers aggressive rate-cut expectations, keeping mortgage spreads elevated. Forecasts diverge, with Fannie Mae projecting 5.9% by year-end versus MBA's 6.4% average, implying potential for sub-6% dips if disinflation accelerates. Key catalysts include the April 4 nonfarm payrolls, mid-April CPI, and late-April FOMC for policy signals shaping the 2026 trajectory.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate, averaging 6.38% as of March 26 per Freddie Mac—up 16 basis points weekly—tracks the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.44%, reflecting trader caution after the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in its March 18 meeting amid stable February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and unemployment ticking to 4.4%. Persistent services inflation tempers aggressive rate-cut expectations, keeping mortgage spreads elevated. Forecasts diverge, with Fannie Mae projecting 5.9% by year-end versus MBA's 6.4% average, implying potential for sub-6% dips if disinflation accelerates. Key catalysts include the April 4 nonfarm payrolls, mid-April CPI, and late-April FOMC for policy signals shaping the 2026 trajectory.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿La tasa hipotecaria a 30 años llegará a __ en 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 9 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "↑ 6,30%" con 100%, seguido de "↑ 6,20%" con 100%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 100¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿La tasa hipotecaria a 30 años llegará a __ en 2026?" ha generado $43.3K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Feb 3, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿La tasa hipotecaria a 30 años llegará a __ en 2026?", explora los 9 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿La tasa hipotecaria a 30 años llegará a __ en 2026?" es "↑ 6,30%" con 100%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 100% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "↑ 6,20%" con 100%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿La tasa hipotecaria a 30 años llegará a __ en 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.