Market icon

¿Quién será el próximo en abandonar el gabinete de Trump?

Market icon

¿Quién será el próximo en abandonar el gabinete de Trump?

Kristi Noem 100.0%

J.D. Vance <1%

Scott Bessent <1%

Doug Burgum <1%

Polymarket

$711,425 Vol.

Kristi Noem 100.0%

J.D. Vance <1%

Scott Bessent <1%

Doug Burgum <1%

Polymarket

$711,425 Vol.

J.D. Vance

$14,536 Vol.

No

Scott Bessent

$24,803 Vol.

No

Doug Burgum

$27,782 Vol.

No

Lori Chavez-DeRemer

$36,538 Vol.

No

Doug Collins

$28,579 Vol.

No

Kristi Noem

$104,437 Vol.

Mike Waltz

$21,347 Vol.

No

Ninguno antes de 2027

$45,488 Vol.

No

Marco Rubio

$21,519 Vol.

No

Pete Hegseth

$21,705 Vol.

No

Pam Bondi

$21,943 Vol.

No

Brooke Rollins

$70,205 Vol.

No

Howard Lutnick

$20,731 Vol.

No

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$21,141 Vol.

No

Scott Turner

$16,302 Vol.

No

Sean Duffy

$26,447 Vol.

No

Chris Wright

$25,017 Vol.

No

Linda McMahon

$26,834 Vol.

No

Lee Zeldin

$27,338 Vol.

No

Susie Wiles

$15,925 Vol.

No

Tulsi Gabbard

$20,291 Vol.

No

Russell T. Vought

$15,886 Vol.

No

John Ratcliffe

$13,186 Vol.

No

Jamieson Greer

$24,061 Vol.

No

Kelly Loeffler

$19,384 Vol.

No

This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.

An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.

If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.

An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.

If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volumen
$711,425
Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 4, 2026, 5:08 PM ET
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

Resultado propuesto: No

Sin disputa

Resultado final: No

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"¿Quién será el próximo en abandonar el gabinete de Trump?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 25 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Kristi Noem" at 100%, followed by "J.D. Vance" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "¿Quién será el próximo en abandonar el gabinete de Trump?" has generated $711.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "¿Quién será el próximo en abandonar el gabinete de Trump?," browse the 25 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "¿Quién será el próximo en abandonar el gabinete de Trump?" is "Kristi Noem" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "¿Quién será el próximo en abandonar el gabinete de Trump?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.