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Política·Premios

Ganador del Premio Nobel de la Paz 2026

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Política·Premios

Ganador del Premio Nobel de la Paz 2026

Yulia Navalnaya 11%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy 9.3%

Título del ítem del grupo: Donald Trump 8%

Título del ítem del grupo: Papa León XIV 4.3%

Polymarket

$12,307,845 Vol.

Yulia Navalnaya 11%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy 9.3%

Título del ítem del grupo: Donald Trump 8%

Título del ítem del grupo: Papa León XIV 4.3%

Polymarket

$12,307,845 Vol.

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Yulia Navalnaya

$90,776 Vol.

11%

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Volodymyr Zelenskyy

$407,273 Vol.

9%

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Título del ítem del grupo: Donald Trump

$2,344,122 Vol.

8%

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Título del ítem del grupo: Papa León XIV

$515,630 Vol.

4%

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Corte Internacional de Justicia

$557,189 Vol.

4%

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UNRWA

$1,671,035 Vol.

4%

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Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani

$413,549 Vol.

4%

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Título del ítem del grupo: Greta Thunberg

$959,449 Vol.

3%

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Narendra Modi

$296,695 Vol.

3%

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Mohammed bin Salman

$578,305 Vol.

2%

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Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

$426,085 Vol.

2%

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Título del ítem del grupo: Charlie Kirk

$601,106 Vol.

2%

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Xi Jinping

$798,962 Vol.

2%

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António Guterres

$143,370 Vol.

2%

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Elon Musk

$535,878 Vol.

2%

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Ahmed al-Sharaa

$585,014 Vol.

2%

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Julian Assange

$343,215 Vol.

2%

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Khaled Mashal

$205,456 Vol.

1%

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Vladimir Putin

$506,087 Vol.

1%

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Título del ítem del grupo: Benjamin Netanyahu

$328,888 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.Trader consensus on the Nobel Peace Prize 2026 remains fragmented, with Yulia Navalnaya holding a slim lead at 10.5% implied probability, buoyed by her unyielding human rights advocacy carrying forward Alexei Navalny's dissident legacy against Russian authoritarianism. Volodymyr Zelenskyy trails closely at 9.4%, propelled by a high-profile nomination last week from University of Oslo professor Dag Øistein Endsjø, who hailed Ukraine's resistance to invasion as a defense of European democracy and stability. Donald Trump's 7.5% reflects persistent narratives around his Abraham Accords and self-proclaimed war-ending feats, despite prior committee snubs. In this wide-open field under 11%, differentiation hinges on the Norwegian Nobel Committee's weighting of wartime heroism versus quiet diplomacy or activism, with geopolitical escalations or additional nominator endorsements as key swing factors ahead of the October announcement.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Volumen
$12,307,845
Fecha de finalización
10 oct 2026
Mercado abierto
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.Trader consensus on the Nobel Peace Prize 2026 remains fragmented, with Yulia Navalnaya holding a slim lead at 10.5% implied probability, buoyed by her unyielding human rights advocacy carrying forward Alexei Navalny's dissident legacy against Russian authoritarianism. Volodymyr Zelenskyy trails closely at 9.4%, propelled by a high-profile nomination last week from University of Oslo professor Dag Øistein Endsjø, who hailed Ukraine's resistance to invasion as a defense of European democracy and stability. Donald Trump's 7.5% reflects persistent narratives around his Abraham Accords and self-proclaimed war-ending feats, despite prior committee snubs. In this wide-open field under 11%, differentiation hinges on the Norwegian Nobel Committee's weighting of wartime heroism versus quiet diplomacy or activism, with geopolitical escalations or additional nominator endorsements as key swing factors ahead of the October announcement.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Volumen
$12,307,845
Fecha de finalización
10 oct 2026
Mercado abierto
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Ganador del Premio Nobel de la Paz 2026" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 20 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Yulia Navalnaya" con 11%, seguido de "Volodymyr Zelenskyy" con 9%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 11¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 11% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Ganador del Premio Nobel de la Paz 2026" ha generado $12.3 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Oct 16, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Ganador del Premio Nobel de la Paz 2026", explora los 20 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Ganador del Premio Nobel de la Paz 2026" es "Yulia Navalnaya" con 11%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 11% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Volodymyr Zelenskyy" con 9%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Ganador del Premio Nobel de la Paz 2026" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.