Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight spread in latest AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting Madrid's highest temperature on April 2 at 18-20°C, with 19°C edging ahead amid minor model divergences on cloud cover and southerly flow strength. Early spring climatology supports this range, as historical April 2 highs average around 18°C—rising from 17.4°C early-month norms due to lengthening daylight and solar insolation—while recent observations logged 17.1°C maxima, tempered by lingering soil moisture from March rains. Key differentiators include potential high-pressure ridging for warmer outcomes versus Atlantic fronts risking cooler peaks below 18°C. New AEMET updates and model runs daily through resolution will sharpen these market-implied odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on April 2?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 2?
19°C 28%
18°C 25%
20°C 25%
22°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Apr 2, 2026
15°C or below
11%
16°C
10%
17°C
14%
18°C
25%
19°C
28%
20°C
25%
21°C
14%
22°C
15%
23°C
11%
24°C
8%
25°C or higher
2%
19°C 28%
18°C 25%
20°C 25%
22°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Apr 2, 2026
15°C or below
$5 Vol.
11%
16°C
$1 Vol.
10%
17°C
$0 Vol.
14%
18°C
$0 Vol.
25%
19°C
$5 Vol.
28%
20°C
$8 Vol.
25%
21°C
$0 Vol.
14%
22°C
$1 Vol.
15%
23°C
$5 Vol.
11%
24°C
$9 Vol.
8%
25°C or higher
$214 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight spread in latest AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting Madrid's highest temperature on April 2 at 18-20°C, with 19°C edging ahead amid minor model divergences on cloud cover and southerly flow strength. Early spring climatology supports this range, as historical April 2 highs average around 18°C—rising from 17.4°C early-month norms due to lengthening daylight and solar insolation—while recent observations logged 17.1°C maxima, tempered by lingering soil moisture from March rains. Key differentiators include potential high-pressure ridging for warmer outcomes versus Atlantic fronts risking cooler peaks below 18°C. New AEMET updates and model runs daily through resolution will sharpen these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 29, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
Volumen
$248Fecha de finalización
Apr 2, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight spread in latest AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting Madrid's highest temperature on April 2 at 18-20°C, with 19°C edging ahead amid minor model divergences on cloud cover and southerly flow strength. Early spring climatology supports this range, as historical April 2 highs average around 18°C—rising from 17.4°C early-month norms due to lengthening daylight and solar insolation—while recent observations logged 17.1°C maxima, tempered by lingering soil moisture from March rains. Key differentiators include potential high-pressure ridging for warmer outcomes versus Atlantic fronts risking cooler peaks below 18°C. New AEMET updates and model runs daily through resolution will sharpen these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$248Fecha de finalización
Apr 2, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the tight spread in latest AEMET, ECMWF, and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting Madrid's highest temperature on April 2 at 18-20°C, with 19°C edging ahead amid minor model divergences on cloud cover and southerly flow strength. Early spring climatology supports this range, as historical April 2 highs average around 18°C—rising from 17.4°C early-month norms due to lengthening daylight and solar insolation—while recent observations logged 17.1°C maxima, tempered by lingering soil moisture from March rains. Key differentiators include potential high-pressure ridging for warmer outcomes versus Atlantic fronts risking cooler peaks below 18°C. New AEMET updates and model runs daily through resolution will sharpen these market-implied odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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