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Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 3?

Market icon

Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 3?

Mar 30

Mar 31

Apr 1

Apr 2

Mar 30

Mar 31

Apr 1

Apr 2

17°C or higher 37%

15°C 22%

16°C 19%

14°C 19%

Polymarket
NEW

17°C or higher 37%

15°C 22%

16°C 19%

14°C 19%

Polymarket
NEW

7°C or below

$210 Vol.

1%

8°C

$0 Vol.

9%

9°C

$0 Vol.

11%

10°C

$0 Vol.

12%

11°C

$0 Vol.

9%

12°C

$0 Vol.

17%

13°C

$0 Vol.

17%

14°C

$9 Vol.

19%

15°C

$0 Vol.

22%

16°C

$0 Vol.

19%

17°C or higher

$0 Vol.

37%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF and GFS project a daytime high near 16-17°C in Istanbul on April 3, positioning the 17°C or higher outcome at 40.5% market-implied probability as trader consensus reflects this mild spring scenario. Following a cool March with average highs around 11-13°C, recent model runs show a warming trend driven by a high-pressure ridge ushering continental air masses northward, reducing shower risks despite patchy clouds. Probabilities cluster tightly around 14-17°C outcomes due to typical early-April variability, where historical data indicate average highs of 15-16°C at Istanbul Airport stations. New daily updates from MGM and ensemble model refreshes through April 1-2 could shift odds amid inherent forecast uncertainty in temperature peaks.

Latest forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF and GFS project a daytime high near 16-17°C in Istanbul on April 3, positioning the 17°C or higher outcome at 40.5% market-implied probability as trader consensus reflects this mild spring scenario. Following a cool March with average highs around 11-13°C, recent model runs show a warming trend driven by a high-pressure ridge ushering continental air masses northward, reducing shower risks despite patchy clouds. Probabilities cluster tightly around 14-17°C outcomes due to typical early-April variability, where historical data indicate average highs of 15-16°C at Istanbul Airport stations. New daily updates from MGM and ensemble model refreshes through April 1-2 could shift odds amid inherent forecast uncertainty in temperature peaks.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF and GFS project a daytime high near 16-17°C in Istanbul on April 3, positioning the 17°C or higher outcome at 40.5% market-implied probability as trader consensus reflects this mild spring scenario. Following a cool March with average highs around 11-13°C, recent model runs show a warming trend driven by a high-pressure ridge ushering continental air masses northward, reducing shower risks despite patchy clouds. Probabilities cluster tightly around 14-17°C outcomes due to typical early-April variability, where historical data indicate average highs of 15-16°C at Istanbul Airport stations. New daily updates from MGM and ensemble model refreshes through April 1-2 could shift odds amid inherent forecast uncertainty in temperature peaks.

Latest forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF and GFS project a daytime high near 16-17°C in Istanbul on April 3, positioning the 17°C or higher outcome at 40.5% market-implied probability as trader consensus reflects this mild spring scenario. Following a cool March with average highs around 11-13°C, recent model runs show a warming trend driven by a high-pressure ridge ushering continental air masses northward, reducing shower risks despite patchy clouds. Probabilities cluster tightly around 14-17°C outcomes due to typical early-April variability, where historical data indicate average highs of 15-16°C at Istanbul Airport stations. New daily updates from MGM and ensemble model refreshes through April 1-2 could shift odds amid inherent forecast uncertainty in temperature peaks.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 3?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 11 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "17°C or higher" con 37%, seguido de "15°C" con 23%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 37¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 37% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 3?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Mar 29, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 3?", explora los 11 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 3?" es "17°C or higher" con 37%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 37% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "15°C" con 23%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 3?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.