Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Istanbul's March 30 high temperature, with 11°C at 42% implied probability edging 10°C (36%) and 12°C (28.5%) amid model divergences. The Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF and GFS project peaks of 10-12°C under partly cloudy conditions and light northerly winds channeling cooler Black Sea air, limiting daytime heating after a drizzly morning. ECMWF runs emphasize prolonged afternoon cloudiness capping highs near 11°C, while GFS anticipates slight clearing for 12°C potential, aligning with March climatology where daily highs average 11-12°C amid spring transitional patterns. Resolution hinges on official MGM observations from key Istanbul stations by midnight, with intraday updates potentially shifting odds as cloud evolution unfolds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Estambul el 30 de marzo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Estambul el 30 de marzo?
11°C 46%
10°C 30%
12°C 27%
9°C 5.4%
NEW
NEW
Mar 30, 2026
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
5%
10°C
31%
11°C
37%
12°C
27%
13°C
5%
14°C o más
<1%
11°C 46%
10°C 30%
12°C 27%
9°C 5.4%
NEW
NEW
Mar 30, 2026
6°C
$1,115 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$2,994 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$422 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$174 Vol.
5%
10°C
$225 Vol.
31%
11°C
$179 Vol.
37%
12°C
$77 Vol.
27%
13°C
$65 Vol.
5%
14°C o más
$229 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Istanbul's March 30 high temperature, with 11°C at 42% implied probability edging 10°C (36%) and 12°C (28.5%) amid model divergences. The Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF and GFS project peaks of 10-12°C under partly cloudy conditions and light northerly winds channeling cooler Black Sea air, limiting daytime heating after a drizzly morning. ECMWF runs emphasize prolonged afternoon cloudiness capping highs near 11°C, while GFS anticipates slight clearing for 12°C potential, aligning with March climatology where daily highs average 11-12°C amid spring transitional patterns. Resolution hinges on official MGM observations from key Istanbul stations by midnight, with intraday updates potentially shifting odds as cloud evolution unfolds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 29, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Volumen
$7,703Fecha de finalización
Mar 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Ventana de disputas
Final
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Istanbul's March 30 high temperature, with 11°C at 42% implied probability edging 10°C (36%) and 12°C (28.5%) amid model divergences. The Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF and GFS project peaks of 10-12°C under partly cloudy conditions and light northerly winds channeling cooler Black Sea air, limiting daytime heating after a drizzly morning. ECMWF runs emphasize prolonged afternoon cloudiness capping highs near 11°C, while GFS anticipates slight clearing for 12°C potential, aligning with March climatology where daily highs average 11-12°C amid spring transitional patterns. Resolution hinges on official MGM observations from key Istanbul stations by midnight, with intraday updates potentially shifting odds as cloud evolution unfolds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 30 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$7,703Fecha de finalización
Mar 30, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Ventana de disputas
Final
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Istanbul's March 30 high temperature, with 11°C at 42% implied probability edging 10°C (36%) and 12°C (28.5%) amid model divergences. The Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF and GFS project peaks of 10-12°C under partly cloudy conditions and light northerly winds channeling cooler Black Sea air, limiting daytime heating after a drizzly morning. ECMWF runs emphasize prolonged afternoon cloudiness capping highs near 11°C, while GFS anticipates slight clearing for 12°C potential, aligning with March climatology where daily highs average 11-12°C amid spring transitional patterns. Resolution hinges on official MGM observations from key Istanbul stations by midnight, with intraday updates potentially shifting odds as cloud evolution unfolds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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