Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin divide, with 53% implied probability for an Anthropic IPO closing above $600 billion versus 45.5% for no listing by December 31, 2027, driven by late-March reports of early talks with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley for a potential Q4 2026 debut raising over $60 billion. Following its February $30 billion Series G round at a $380 billion post-money valuation, surging annualized revenue to $19 billion—fueled by Claude large language model upgrades like Opus 4.6, Sonnet 4.6, and developer tools such as Computer Use—bolsters growth optimism amid enterprise AI dominance over OpenAI's consumer tilt. However, macro headwinds like geopolitical tensions, a recent Claude Code source leak, and IPO timing risks versus rivals keep the no-IPO outcome viable, with model releases and profitability milestones as key swing factors.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado600.000M+ 53%
No salida a bolsa antes del 31 de diciembre de 2027 45%
400–600 mil millones 1.7%
100–200 mil millones <1%
$105,714 Vol.
$105,714 Vol.
31 dic 2027
<100 mil millones
<1%
100–200 mil millones
1%
200–300B
1%
300–400 mil millones
1%
400–600 mil millones
2%
600.000M+
53%
No salida a bolsa antes del 31 de diciembre de 2027
45%
600.000M+ 53%
No salida a bolsa antes del 31 de diciembre de 2027 45%
400–600 mil millones 1.7%
100–200 mil millones <1%
$105,714 Vol.
$105,714 Vol.
31 dic 2027
<100 mil millones
$48,802 Vol.
<1%
100–200 mil millones
$5,835 Vol.
1%
200–300B
$4,497 Vol.
1%
300–400 mil millones
$27,267 Vol.
1%
400–600 mil millones
$4,827 Vol.
2%
600.000M+
$8,818 Vol.
53%
No salida a bolsa antes del 31 de diciembre de 2027
$5,668 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin divide, with 53% implied probability for an Anthropic IPO closing above $600 billion versus 45.5% for no listing by December 31, 2027, driven by late-March reports of early talks with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley for a potential Q4 2026 debut raising over $60 billion. Following its February $30 billion Series G round at a $380 billion post-money valuation, surging annualized revenue to $19 billion—fueled by Claude large language model upgrades like Opus 4.6, Sonnet 4.6, and developer tools such as Computer Use—bolsters growth optimism amid enterprise AI dominance over OpenAI's consumer tilt. However, macro headwinds like geopolitical tensions, a recent Claude Code source leak, and IPO timing risks versus rivals keep the no-IPO outcome viable, with model releases and profitability milestones as key swing factors.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercado abierto: Feb 4, 2026, 1:21 PM ET
Volumen
$105,714Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 4, 2026, 1:21 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin divide, with 53% implied probability for an Anthropic IPO closing above $600 billion versus 45.5% for no listing by December 31, 2027, driven by late-March reports of early talks with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley for a potential Q4 2026 debut raising over $60 billion. Following its February $30 billion Series G round at a $380 billion post-money valuation, surging annualized revenue to $19 billion—fueled by Claude large language model upgrades like Opus 4.6, Sonnet 4.6, and developer tools such as Computer Use—bolsters growth optimism amid enterprise AI dominance over OpenAI's consumer tilt. However, macro headwinds like geopolitical tensions, a recent Claude Code source leak, and IPO timing risks versus rivals keep the no-IPO outcome viable, with model releases and profitability milestones as key swing factors.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volumen
$105,714Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 4, 2026, 1:21 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin divide, with 53% implied probability for an Anthropic IPO closing above $600 billion versus 45.5% for no listing by December 31, 2027, driven by late-March reports of early talks with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley for a potential Q4 2026 debut raising over $60 billion. Following its February $30 billion Series G round at a $380 billion post-money valuation, surging annualized revenue to $19 billion—fueled by Claude large language model upgrades like Opus 4.6, Sonnet 4.6, and developer tools such as Computer Use—bolsters growth optimism amid enterprise AI dominance over OpenAI's consumer tilt. However, macro headwinds like geopolitical tensions, a recent Claude Code source leak, and IPO timing risks versus rivals keep the no-IPO outcome viable, with model releases and profitability milestones as key swing factors.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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