In early January 2026, the United States conducted targeted military strikes and a special operation in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, which prompted his ouster and a regime change without a full-scale ground invasion or occupation. This action, including drone and land strikes on suspected narco targets, fell short of traditional invasion criteria debated by traders on Polymarket, keeping related markets unresolved for later resolution dates. By early March, the U.S. and Venezuela's interim authorities agreed to reestablish diplomatic and consular relations, signaling de-escalation amid pragmatic energy diplomacy and eased sanctions. No further military escalations have occurred in the past 30 days, with focus shifting to bilateral economic ties; upcoming congressional reviews of Venezuela policy could influence future tensions.