Recent developments around Spain’s snap general election on November 29, called by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez after housing decree defeats and nationwide protests over rents and evictions, shape trader views on turnout. Heightened polarization between the PSOE-led government and the PP-Vox bloc, alongside issues like migration pressures in Ceuta and lingering corruption probes, creates competing mobilization effects. While activist campaigns and first-time voters could lift participation, the abbreviated campaign period and voter fatigue from repeated political crises point to moderate engagement. Current pricing reflects this balance, with 62-64% emerging as the consensus range amid uncertainty over whether protests will translate into higher ballot-box turnout or disillusionment will suppress it. Scheduled events through late November, including final campaign rallies, could still shift these probabilities.