Recent polling averages place the PP at around 32% and Vox near 19%, giving the two parties a combined vote share above 50% and projected seat totals of 190–210 in the 350-seat Congress—well above the 176-seat absolute majority threshold. This positioning follows Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s call for a snap election on November 29 after government setbacks on housing policy, migration pressures in Ceuta, and coalition strains. Support for the PSOE has fallen to roughly 26%, while its left-wing allies have fragmented further, limiting their coalition options. Multiple surveys conducted since the election announcement, including those from 40dB, Sigma Dos, and SocioMétrica, show the PP-Vox bloc securing a majority in the large majority of simulations, aligning with the current 78.5% implied probability for a Yes outcome.