NVIDIA's implied probability on Polymarket of closing above key March-end thresholds hinges primarily on its February 26 earnings, where traders anticipate blowout data center revenue from AI chip demand amid Blackwell ramp-up. Current shares trade around $142, with market-implied odds reflecting 55-65% consensus for surpassing $150, buoyed by $30.8B Q4 guidance consensus versus $28.9B prior. Macro tailwinds include cooling inflation supporting Fed rate cuts, boosting tech multiples, though risks loom from U.S.-China export curbs and AMD competition. Watch post-earnings volatility; historical precedent shows 10-15% swings, with Nasdaq correlation amplifying moves toward quarter-end resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$20,508 Vol.
120 $
99%
$130
96%
140 $
99%
150 $
96%
160 $
88%
$170
69%
180 $
37%
190 $
8%
200 $
4%
$210
1%
$220
1%
230 $
1%
240 $
1%
$20,508 Vol.
120 $
99%
$130
96%
140 $
99%
150 $
96%
160 $
88%
$170
69%
180 $
37%
190 $
8%
200 $
4%
$210
1%
$220
1%
230 $
1%
240 $
1%
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the NVIDIA (NVDA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history, published under "Historical Prices."
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 27, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...NVIDIA's implied probability on Polymarket of closing above key March-end thresholds hinges primarily on its February 26 earnings, where traders anticipate blowout data center revenue from AI chip demand amid Blackwell ramp-up. Current shares trade around $142, with market-implied odds reflecting 55-65% consensus for surpassing $150, buoyed by $30.8B Q4 guidance consensus versus $28.9B prior. Macro tailwinds include cooling inflation supporting Fed rate cuts, boosting tech multiples, though risks loom from U.S.-China export curbs and AMD competition. Watch post-earnings volatility; historical precedent shows 10-15% swings, with Nasdaq correlation amplifying moves toward quarter-end resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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