Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 62% probability that Apple (AAPL) shares will close above $225 by March 31, driven primarily by the stock's recent 3% rebound from $218 lows following a $110 billion buyback authorization and dividend hike announced in Q1 earnings. Currently trading at $223.40, AAPL faces headwinds from softening iPhone demand in China—down 11% YoY per January data—and U.S. antitrust probes, yet services revenue hit a record $25 billion, bolstering margins. Key events include March 12 CPI data and the FOMC meeting March 18-19, where rate cut signals could lift tech multiples; breaching $225 requires just 0.8% upside amid historical end-of-March average gains of 1.2%.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$259,136 Vol.
$210
98%
$220
94%
230 $
94%
240 $
81%
$250
48%
$260
20%
270 $
5%
$280
10%
290 $
2%
300 $
2%
310 $
2%
$320
2%
$330
1%
$259,136 Vol.
$210
98%
$220
94%
230 $
94%
240 $
81%
$250
48%
$260
20%
270 $
5%
$280
10%
290 $
2%
300 $
2%
310 $
2%
$320
2%
$330
1%
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Apple (AAPL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history, published under "Historical Prices."
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 27, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 62% probability that Apple (AAPL) shares will close above $225 by March 31, driven primarily by the stock's recent 3% rebound from $218 lows following a $110 billion buyback authorization and dividend hike announced in Q1 earnings. Currently trading at $223.40, AAPL faces headwinds from softening iPhone demand in China—down 11% YoY per January data—and U.S. antitrust probes, yet services revenue hit a record $25 billion, bolstering margins. Key events include March 12 CPI data and the FOMC meeting March 18-19, where rate cut signals could lift tech multiples; breaching $225 requires just 0.8% upside amid historical end-of-March average gains of 1.2%.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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