US and Israeli airstrikes continue targeting Iranian military sites, IRGC command nodes, missile facilities, and nuclear infrastructure under Operation Epic Fury, now over a month into the conflict that began with surprise attacks on February 28, 2026. Recent weekend barrages hit cities including Shiraz, Isfahan, Tehran, and Mashhad, while Iran launched retaliatory missile salvoes at Gulf targets and Israel, prompting US ground troop arrivals and President Trump's suggestions of seizing Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal. With the Pentagon preparing for potential invasion and no ceasefire negotiations underway, traders price a 99.1% consensus that hostilities persist through March 31. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough, operational pause announcement, or major Iranian capitulation could shift this, though current escalation signals otherwise.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$2,969,113 Vol.
$2,969,113 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
31. März
1%
Militärische Maßnahmen bis zum 31. März
99%
$2,969,113 Vol.
$2,969,113 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
31. März
$422,418 Vol.
1%
Militärische Maßnahmen bis zum 31. März
$744,190 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes continue targeting Iranian military sites, IRGC command nodes, missile facilities, and nuclear infrastructure under Operation Epic Fury, now over a month into the conflict that began with surprise attacks on February 28, 2026. Recent weekend barrages hit cities including Shiraz, Isfahan, Tehran, and Mashhad, while Iran launched retaliatory missile salvoes at Gulf targets and Israel, prompting US ground troop arrivals and President Trump's suggestions of seizing Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal. With the Pentagon preparing for potential invasion and no ceasefire negotiations underway, traders price a 99.1% consensus that hostilities persist through March 31. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough, operational pause announcement, or major Iranian capitulation could shift this, though current escalation signals otherwise.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volumen
$2,969,113Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes continue targeting Iranian military sites, IRGC command nodes, missile facilities, and nuclear infrastructure under Operation Epic Fury, now over a month into the conflict that began with surprise attacks on February 28, 2026. Recent weekend barrages hit cities including Shiraz, Isfahan, Tehran, and Mashhad, while Iran launched retaliatory missile salvoes at Gulf targets and Israel, prompting US ground troop arrivals and President Trump's suggestions of seizing Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal. With the Pentagon preparing for potential invasion and no ceasefire negotiations underway, traders price a 99.1% consensus that hostilities persist through March 31. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough, operational pause announcement, or major Iranian capitulation could shift this, though current escalation signals otherwise.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,969,113Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
US and Israeli airstrikes continue targeting Iranian military sites, IRGC command nodes, missile facilities, and nuclear infrastructure under Operation Epic Fury, now over a month into the conflict that began with surprise attacks on February 28, 2026. Recent weekend barrages hit cities including Shiraz, Isfahan, Tehran, and Mashhad, while Iran launched retaliatory missile salvoes at Gulf targets and Israel, prompting US ground troop arrivals and President Trump's suggestions of seizing Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal. With the Pentagon preparing for potential invasion and no ceasefire negotiations underway, traders price a 99.1% consensus that hostilities persist through March 31. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough, operational pause announcement, or major Iranian capitulation could shift this, though current escalation signals otherwise.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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