US-Israel airstrikes against Iranian military targets, including missile factories and naval assets, have degraded over 70% of Tehran's capabilities since the campaign began on February 28, entering its fifth week as of late March 2026. Iran continues retaliatory missile and drone barrages on Gulf sites and US bases, while keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed to shipping. President Trump recently sent a 15-point ceasefire proposal via mediators, which Iran deemed unreasonable and countered with demands for reparations and sovereignty guarantees; Trump paused strikes on power plants until early April pending talks. Upcoming diplomatic developments or further escalation signals could influence whether hostilities cease by market deadlines.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$247,727 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 30
<1%
March 31
1%
15. April
19%
30. April
38%
31. Mai
74%
30. Juni
79%
$247,727 Vol.
March 30
$24,786 Vol.
<1%
March 31
$106,219 Vol.
1%
15. April
$6,477 Vol.
19%
30. April
$5,121 Vol.
38%
31. Mai
$2,877 Vol.
74%
30. Juni
$627 Vol.
79%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israel airstrikes against Iranian military targets, including missile factories and naval assets, have degraded over 70% of Tehran's capabilities since the campaign began on February 28, entering its fifth week as of late March 2026. Iran continues retaliatory missile and drone barrages on Gulf sites and US bases, while keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed to shipping. President Trump recently sent a 15-point ceasefire proposal via mediators, which Iran deemed unreasonable and countered with demands for reparations and sovereignty guarantees; Trump paused strikes on power plants until early April pending talks. Upcoming diplomatic developments or further escalation signals could influence whether hostilities cease by market deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
Volumen
$247,727Enddatum
Jun 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israel airstrikes against Iranian military targets, including missile factories and naval assets, have degraded over 70% of Tehran's capabilities since the campaign began on February 28, entering its fifth week as of late March 2026. Iran continues retaliatory missile and drone barrages on Gulf sites and US bases, while keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed to shipping. President Trump recently sent a 15-point ceasefire proposal via mediators, which Iran deemed unreasonable and countered with demands for reparations and sovereignty guarantees; Trump paused strikes on power plants until early April pending talks. Upcoming diplomatic developments or further escalation signals could influence whether hostilities cease by market deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$247,727Enddatum
Jun 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Israel airstrikes against Iranian military targets, including missile factories and naval assets, have degraded over 70% of Tehran's capabilities since the campaign began on February 28, entering its fifth week as of late March 2026. Iran continues retaliatory missile and drone barrages on Gulf sites and US bases, while keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed to shipping. President Trump recently sent a 15-point ceasefire proposal via mediators, which Iran deemed unreasonable and countered with demands for reparations and sovereignty guarantees; Trump paused strikes on power plants until early April pending talks. Upcoming diplomatic developments or further escalation signals could influence whether hostilities cease by market deadlines.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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