US and Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear sites, missile stockpiles, and leadership—including the navy chief and national security figures—have intensified over the past week, prompting Iranian retaliatory strikes on Israeli industrial zones and Houthi attacks on Israel. President Trump's 15-point ceasefire proposal, offered five days ago via mediators like Pakistan and Oman, signals diplomatic de-escalation efforts, with Trump stating a deal could come soon amid reports of paused strikes and troop surges. Ongoing hostilities, vows of retaliation, and overcrowding in Iranian hospitals underscore uncertainty, while trader consensus reflects optimism for resolution by year-end through negotiations, though shorter-term deadlines face barriers from unresolved escalations and proxy actions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertIran x Israel/US-Konflikt endet durch...?
Iran x Israel/US-Konflikt endet durch...?
$8,485,825 Vol.
Mar 15, 2026
31. März
1%
15. April
15%
7. April
4%
30. April
26%
15. Mai
38%
30. Juni
65%
31. Dezember
80%
$8,485,825 Vol.
31. März
$4,349,937 Vol.
1%
15. April
$963,433 Vol.
15%
7. April
$144,542 Vol.
4%
30. April
$732,016 Vol.
26%
15. Mai
$1,221,285 Vol.
38%
30. Juni
$845,012 Vol.
65%
31. Dezember
$229,599 Vol.
80%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.US and Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear sites, missile stockpiles, and leadership—including the navy chief and national security figures—have intensified over the past week, prompting Iranian retaliatory strikes on Israeli industrial zones and Houthi attacks on Israel. President Trump's 15-point ceasefire proposal, offered five days ago via mediators like Pakistan and Oman, signals diplomatic de-escalation efforts, with Trump stating a deal could come soon amid reports of paused strikes and troop surges. Ongoing hostilities, vows of retaliation, and overcrowding in Iranian hospitals underscore uncertainty, while trader consensus reflects optimism for resolution by year-end through negotiations, though shorter-term deadlines face barriers from unresolved escalations and proxy actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ET
Volumen
$8,485,825Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.US and Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear sites, missile stockpiles, and leadership—including the navy chief and national security figures—have intensified over the past week, prompting Iranian retaliatory strikes on Israeli industrial zones and Houthi attacks on Israel. President Trump's 15-point ceasefire proposal, offered five days ago via mediators like Pakistan and Oman, signals diplomatic de-escalation efforts, with Trump stating a deal could come soon amid reports of paused strikes and troop surges. Ongoing hostilities, vows of retaliation, and overcrowding in Iranian hospitals underscore uncertainty, while trader consensus reflects optimism for resolution by year-end through negotiations, though shorter-term deadlines face barriers from unresolved escalations and proxy actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Volumen
$8,485,825Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
US and Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear sites, missile stockpiles, and leadership—including the navy chief and national security figures—have intensified over the past week, prompting Iranian retaliatory strikes on Israeli industrial zones and Houthi attacks on Israel. President Trump's 15-point ceasefire proposal, offered five days ago via mediators like Pakistan and Oman, signals diplomatic de-escalation efforts, with Trump stating a deal could come soon amid reports of paused strikes and troop surges. Ongoing hostilities, vows of retaliation, and overcrowding in Iranian hospitals underscore uncertainty, while trader consensus reflects optimism for resolution by year-end through negotiations, though shorter-term deadlines face barriers from unresolved escalations and proxy actions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen