Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 46.5% implied probability to serve as Iran's Supreme Leader by end-2026, driven by his swift designation as successor on March 8 following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination in U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28 that also reportedly injured Mojtaba's leg and killed family members. Uncertainty over his health—amid conflicting reports of coma or absence since mid-March—fuels a closely contested market, with Reza Pahlavi at 13.5% gaining from his recent calls rejecting the succession's legitimacy, unveiling a post-regime transition plan, and urging defections amid escalating protests and unrest. Lower odds on regime insiders like Ghalibaf reflect institutional continuity bets, while external pressures and potential further strikes heighten volatility ahead of year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertIran-Führer Ende 2026?
Iran-Führer Ende 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei 45.4%
Reza Pahlavi 14%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 6.9%
Hassan Khomeini 5.5%
$4,994,042 Vol.
$4,994,042 Vol.
Mojtaba Khamenei
45%
Reza Pahlavi
14%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
7%
Hassan Khomeini
5%
Alireza Arafi
5%
Kein Staatschef
5%
Hassan Rouhani
5%
Sadegh Larijani
3%
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
1%
Saeed Jalili
1%
Maryam Rajavi
1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
<1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
<1%
Abbas Araghchi
<1%
Ahmad Vahidi
<1%
Mohammad Khatami
<1%
Ali Motahari
<1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
<1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
<1%
Mohsen Araki
<1%
Nasir Hosseini
<1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
<1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
<1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
<1%
Massoud Rajavi
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
Mustafa Hijri
<1%
Mojtaba Khamenei 45.4%
Reza Pahlavi 14%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 6.9%
Hassan Khomeini 5.5%
$4,994,042 Vol.
$4,994,042 Vol.
Mojtaba Khamenei
45%
Reza Pahlavi
14%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
7%
Hassan Khomeini
5%
Alireza Arafi
5%
Kein Staatschef
5%
Hassan Rouhani
5%
Sadegh Larijani
3%
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
1%
Saeed Jalili
1%
Maryam Rajavi
1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
<1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
<1%
Abbas Araghchi
<1%
Ahmad Vahidi
<1%
Mohammad Khatami
<1%
Ali Motahari
<1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
<1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
<1%
Mohsen Araki
<1%
Nasir Hosseini
<1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
<1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
<1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
<1%
Massoud Rajavi
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
Mustafa Hijri
<1%
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 46.5% implied probability to serve as Iran's Supreme Leader by end-2026, driven by his swift designation as successor on March 8 following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination in U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28 that also reportedly injured Mojtaba's leg and killed family members. Uncertainty over his health—amid conflicting reports of coma or absence since mid-March—fuels a closely contested market, with Reza Pahlavi at 13.5% gaining from his recent calls rejecting the succession's legitimacy, unveiling a post-regime transition plan, and urging defections amid escalating protests and unrest. Lower odds on regime insiders like Ghalibaf reflect institutional continuity bets, while external pressures and potential further strikes heighten volatility ahead of year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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