Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest 31.5% implied probability for India annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.50% in 2026, closely trailed by the 3.75%-4.49% (23.5%) and 2.25%-2.99% (23.0%) bins, reflecting heightened uncertainty amid recent acceleration to 3.21% in February—the highest in 10 months under the new 2024 base series—driven by rising food and fuel costs. Escalating West Asia tensions have spiked oil prices toward $100 per barrel, prompting Goldman Sachs to lift its 2026 forecast to 4.2% and Fitch to 5.1% for FY27, outpacing RBI's benign 2.1% FY26 projection (ending March) but aligning with its 4.0%-4.2% Q1-Q2 FY27 outlook. Key swing factors include March CPI data due April 13 and the RBI MPC's April meeting, where imported inflation risks vie against robust growth for policy stasis at 5.25% repo rate.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert4,50 %+ 37%
3,75 % bis 4,49 % 27%
2,25 % bis 2,99 % 19%
<0,75 % 13%
$57,341 Vol.
$57,341 Vol.
12. Jan. 2027
<0,75 %
13%
0,75 % bis 1,49 %
5%
1,50 % bis 2,24 %
17%
2,25 % bis 2,99 %
22%
3,00 % bis 3,74 %
9%
3,75 % bis 4,49 %
27%
4,50 %+
37%
4,50 %+ 37%
3,75 % bis 4,49 % 27%
2,25 % bis 2,99 % 19%
<0,75 % 13%
$57,341 Vol.
$57,341 Vol.
12. Jan. 2027
<0,75 %
$632 Vol.
13%
0,75 % bis 1,49 %
$271 Vol.
5%
1,50 % bis 2,24 %
$340 Vol.
17%
2,25 % bis 2,99 %
$22,328 Vol.
22%
3,00 % bis 3,74 %
$375 Vol.
9%
3,75 % bis 4,49 %
$22,735 Vol.
27%
4,50 %+
$10,659 Vol.
37%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest 31.5% implied probability for India annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.50% in 2026, closely trailed by the 3.75%-4.49% (23.5%) and 2.25%-2.99% (23.0%) bins, reflecting heightened uncertainty amid recent acceleration to 3.21% in February—the highest in 10 months under the new 2024 base series—driven by rising food and fuel costs. Escalating West Asia tensions have spiked oil prices toward $100 per barrel, prompting Goldman Sachs to lift its 2026 forecast to 4.2% and Fitch to 5.1% for FY27, outpacing RBI's benign 2.1% FY26 projection (ending March) but aligning with its 4.0%-4.2% Q1-Q2 FY27 outlook. Key swing factors include March CPI data due April 13 and the RBI MPC's April meeting, where imported inflation risks vie against robust growth for policy stasis at 5.25% repo rate.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Markt eröffnet: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volumen
$57,341Enddatum
12. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest 31.5% implied probability for India annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.50% in 2026, closely trailed by the 3.75%-4.49% (23.5%) and 2.25%-2.99% (23.0%) bins, reflecting heightened uncertainty amid recent acceleration to 3.21% in February—the highest in 10 months under the new 2024 base series—driven by rising food and fuel costs. Escalating West Asia tensions have spiked oil prices toward $100 per barrel, prompting Goldman Sachs to lift its 2026 forecast to 4.2% and Fitch to 5.1% for FY27, outpacing RBI's benign 2.1% FY26 projection (ending March) but aligning with its 4.0%-4.2% Q1-Q2 FY27 outlook. Key swing factors include March CPI data due April 13 and the RBI MPC's April meeting, where imported inflation risks vie against robust growth for policy stasis at 5.25% repo rate.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Volumen
$57,341Enddatum
12. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest 31.5% implied probability for India annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.50% in 2026, closely trailed by the 3.75%-4.49% (23.5%) and 2.25%-2.99% (23.0%) bins, reflecting heightened uncertainty amid recent acceleration to 3.21% in February—the highest in 10 months under the new 2024 base series—driven by rising food and fuel costs. Escalating West Asia tensions have spiked oil prices toward $100 per barrel, prompting Goldman Sachs to lift its 2026 forecast to 4.2% and Fitch to 5.1% for FY27, outpacing RBI's benign 2.1% FY26 projection (ending March) but aligning with its 4.0%-4.2% Q1-Q2 FY27 outlook. Key swing factors include March CPI data due April 13 and the RBI MPC's April meeting, where imported inflation risks vie against robust growth for policy stasis at 5.25% repo rate.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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