Trader consensus on Polymarket implies low expectations for Iranian success in targeting ships by April 30, with under two at 58%, driven by U.S. and Israeli strikes sinking over 20 Iranian naval vessels early in the March conflict, severely degrading Tehran's maritime strike capabilities. Early-month incidents, including apparent deliberate hits on at least two civilian ships in the Strait of Hormuz around March 10-11 as noted by Human Rights Watch, have not been replicated amid robust interceptions and fog-of-war denials, such as CENTCOM's rejection of recent claims against U.S. resupply vessels. Recent de-escalation signals—Iran permitting 8-10 tankers' passage on March 26 and agreeing to 20 more on March 29—bolster the under-two lead ahead of a U.S. April 6 deadline to fully reopen the strait, though Iran-backed Houthi missile launches at Israel risk broader disruptions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHow many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?
How many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?
<2 56%
2–3 22%
6–7 9%
4–5 9%
$15,632 Vol.
$15,632 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
<2
56%
2–3
22%
4–5
9%
6–7
9%
8–9
6%
10+
8%
<2 56%
2–3 22%
6–7 9%
4–5 9%
$15,632 Vol.
$15,632 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
<2
$6,513 Vol.
56%
2–3
$1,865 Vol.
22%
4–5
$90 Vol.
9%
6–7
$2,110 Vol.
9%
8–9
$4,889 Vol.
6%
10+
$166 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies low expectations for Iranian success in targeting ships by April 30, with under two at 58%, driven by U.S. and Israeli strikes sinking over 20 Iranian naval vessels early in the March conflict, severely degrading Tehran's maritime strike capabilities. Early-month incidents, including apparent deliberate hits on at least two civilian ships in the Strait of Hormuz around March 10-11 as noted by Human Rights Watch, have not been replicated amid robust interceptions and fog-of-war denials, such as CENTCOM's rejection of recent claims against U.S. resupply vessels. Recent de-escalation signals—Iran permitting 8-10 tankers' passage on March 26 and agreeing to 20 more on March 29—bolster the under-two lead ahead of a U.S. April 6 deadline to fully reopen the strait, though Iran-backed Houthi missile launches at Israel risk broader disruptions.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ET
Volumen
$15,632Enddatum
Apr 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies low expectations for Iranian success in targeting ships by April 30, with under two at 58%, driven by U.S. and Israeli strikes sinking over 20 Iranian naval vessels early in the March conflict, severely degrading Tehran's maritime strike capabilities. Early-month incidents, including apparent deliberate hits on at least two civilian ships in the Strait of Hormuz around March 10-11 as noted by Human Rights Watch, have not been replicated amid robust interceptions and fog-of-war denials, such as CENTCOM's rejection of recent claims against U.S. resupply vessels. Recent de-escalation signals—Iran permitting 8-10 tankers' passage on March 26 and agreeing to 20 more on March 29—bolster the under-two lead ahead of a U.S. April 6 deadline to fully reopen the strait, though Iran-backed Houthi missile launches at Israel risk broader disruptions.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$15,632Enddatum
Apr 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies low expectations for Iranian success in targeting ships by April 30, with under two at 58%, driven by U.S. and Israeli strikes sinking over 20 Iranian naval vessels early in the March conflict, severely degrading Tehran's maritime strike capabilities. Early-month incidents, including apparent deliberate hits on at least two civilian ships in the Strait of Hormuz around March 10-11 as noted by Human Rights Watch, have not been replicated amid robust interceptions and fog-of-war denials, such as CENTCOM's rejection of recent claims against U.S. resupply vessels. Recent de-escalation signals—Iran permitting 8-10 tankers' passage on March 26 and agreeing to 20 more on March 29—bolster the under-two lead ahead of a U.S. April 6 deadline to fully reopen the strait, though Iran-backed Houthi missile launches at Israel risk broader disruptions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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