Trader consensus on Polymarket prices four distinct countries at 39.5% and five at 29.9%, reflecting confirmed Israeli airstrikes and ground operations in Iran—triggered by the U.S.-Israel war launch on February 28 targeting military sites and nuclear facilities—Lebanon since mid-March against Hezbollah, and Syria amid routine proxy clashes, with Yemen emerging as the pivotal fourth amid Houthi missile barrages on Israel as recently as March 29. The tight race persists due to uncertainty over Iraq militia attacks prompting additional strikes, balanced against diplomatic pressures for de-escalation like Strait of Hormuz talks. Separation could arise from expanded ground incursions, proxy escalations, or U.S. policy shifts under Trump, with eight months left in 2026.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertGruppen-Element-Titel: 4 39.5%
5 29.9%
6 12.2%
3 12.1%
$6,348,166 Vol.
$6,348,166 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
3
12%
Gruppen-Element-Titel: 4
40%
5
30%
6
12%
7
3%
8
2%
Gruppeneintrag Titel: 9
1%
10
1%
11
1%
12
<1%
13
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: 14
<1%
15+
<1%
Gruppen-Element-Titel: 4 39.5%
5 29.9%
6 12.2%
3 12.1%
$6,348,166 Vol.
$6,348,166 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
3
$1,892,611 Vol.
12%
Gruppen-Element-Titel: 4
$1,140,312 Vol.
40%
5
$491,271 Vol.
30%
6
$626,342 Vol.
12%
7
$584,733 Vol.
3%
8
$499,429 Vol.
2%
Gruppeneintrag Titel: 9
$198,729 Vol.
1%
10
$375,403 Vol.
1%
11
$89,607 Vol.
1%
12
$59,435 Vol.
<1%
13
$130,826 Vol.
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: 14
$98,751 Vol.
<1%
15+
$35,136 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices four distinct countries at 39.5% and five at 29.9%, reflecting confirmed Israeli airstrikes and ground operations in Iran—triggered by the U.S.-Israel war launch on February 28 targeting military sites and nuclear facilities—Lebanon since mid-March against Hezbollah, and Syria amid routine proxy clashes, with Yemen emerging as the pivotal fourth amid Houthi missile barrages on Israel as recently as March 29. The tight race persists due to uncertainty over Iraq militia attacks prompting additional strikes, balanced against diplomatic pressures for de-escalation like Strait of Hormuz talks. Separation could arise from expanded ground incursions, proxy escalations, or U.S. policy shifts under Trump, with eight months left in 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ET
Volumen
$6,348,166Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices four distinct countries at 39.5% and five at 29.9%, reflecting confirmed Israeli airstrikes and ground operations in Iran—triggered by the U.S.-Israel war launch on February 28 targeting military sites and nuclear facilities—Lebanon since mid-March against Hezbollah, and Syria amid routine proxy clashes, with Yemen emerging as the pivotal fourth amid Houthi missile barrages on Israel as recently as March 29. The tight race persists due to uncertainty over Iraq militia attacks prompting additional strikes, balanced against diplomatic pressures for de-escalation like Strait of Hormuz talks. Separation could arise from expanded ground incursions, proxy escalations, or U.S. policy shifts under Trump, with eight months left in 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$6,348,166Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices four distinct countries at 39.5% and five at 29.9%, reflecting confirmed Israeli airstrikes and ground operations in Iran—triggered by the U.S.-Israel war launch on February 28 targeting military sites and nuclear facilities—Lebanon since mid-March against Hezbollah, and Syria amid routine proxy clashes, with Yemen emerging as the pivotal fourth amid Houthi missile barrages on Israel as recently as March 29. The tight race persists due to uncertainty over Iraq militia attacks prompting additional strikes, balanced against diplomatic pressures for de-escalation like Strait of Hormuz talks. Separation could arise from expanded ground incursions, proxy escalations, or U.S. policy shifts under Trump, with eight months left in 2026.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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