Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the June 2026 COMEX gold (GC) futures settlement near $4,500, with implied probabilities tightly split between the $4,200-$4,600 (18.3%) and $4,600-$5,000 (18.0%) bins amid March's 14% price plunge—the worst monthly drop since 2008—driven by surging oil from escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates at 3.5%-3.75% with no 2026 cuts signaled, and firmer U.S. dollar alongside rising real yields. This correction from early-March highs above $5,400 reflects heightened inflation fears (OECD forecasting 4.2% for 2026), offsetting long-term bullish drivers like central bank demand; key differentiators include upcoming April nonfarm payrolls and CPI data, which could sway sentiment on monetary policy path versus geopolitical risks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertWorum geht es bei Gold (GC) im Juni?
Worum geht es bei Gold (GC) im Juni?
$4.200-$4.600 18.3%
4.600–5.000 $ 18%
$5.000-$5.400 15.8%
$3.800-$4.200 13.3%
$862,866 Vol.
$862,866 Vol.
<$3.800
7%
$3.800-$4.200
13%
$4.200-$4.600
18%
4.600–5.000 $
18%
$5.000-$5.400
16%
$5.400-$5.800
11%
$5.800–$6.200
7%
>6.200 $
5%
$4.200-$4.600 18.3%
4.600–5.000 $ 18%
$5.000-$5.400 15.8%
$3.800-$4.200 13.3%
$862,866 Vol.
$862,866 Vol.
<$3.800
7%
$3.800-$4.200
13%
$4.200-$4.600
18%
4.600–5.000 $
18%
$5.000-$5.400
16%
$5.400-$5.800
11%
$5.800–$6.200
7%
>6.200 $
5%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 26, 2025, 6:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the June 2026 COMEX gold (GC) futures settlement near $4,500, with implied probabilities tightly split between the $4,200-$4,600 (18.3%) and $4,600-$5,000 (18.0%) bins amid March's 14% price plunge—the worst monthly drop since 2008—driven by surging oil from escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates at 3.5%-3.75% with no 2026 cuts signaled, and firmer U.S. dollar alongside rising real yields. This correction from early-March highs above $5,400 reflects heightened inflation fears (OECD forecasting 4.2% for 2026), offsetting long-term bullish drivers like central bank demand; key differentiators include upcoming April nonfarm payrolls and CPI data, which could sway sentiment on monetary policy path versus geopolitical risks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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