Market icon

Any fleeing Texas House Democrats arrested by Friday?

Market icon

Any fleeing Texas House Democrats arrested by Friday?

<1% chance
Polymarket

$34,234 Vol.

<1% chance
Polymarket

$34,234 Vol.

Most of the 62 Texas House Democrats fled the state on Sunday, August 3, 2025, to deny the Texas House the two‐thirds quorum (at least 100 of 150 members) needed to take up legislation, particularly a controversial GOP‑backed congressional redistricting plan aimed at gaining up five additional Republican U.S. House seats. Governor Greg Abbott subsequently threatened to arrest these Democrats unless they return to allow a vote to take place.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any of the Texas House Democrats who fled are arrested by any jurisdiction for any charges between August 4, 4:00 PM ET, and August 8, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$34,234
Enddatum
Aug 8, 2025
Markt eröffnet
Aug 4, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
Most of the 62 Texas House Democrats fled the state on Sunday, August 3, 2025, to deny the Texas House the two‐thirds quorum (at least 100 of 150 members) needed to take up legislation, particularly a controversial GOP‑backed congressional redistricting plan aimed at gaining up five additional Republican U.S. House seats. Governor Greg Abbott subsequently threatened to arrest these Democrats unless they return to allow a vote to take place. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any of the Texas House Democrats who fled are arrested by any jurisdiction for any charges between August 4, 4:00 PM ET, and August 8, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No

Kein Einspruch

Endgültiges Ergebnis: No

Most of the 62 Texas House Democrats fled the state on Sunday, August 3, 2025, to deny the Texas House the two‐thirds quorum (at least 100 of 150 members) needed to take up legislation, particularly a controversial GOP‑backed congressional redistricting plan aimed at gaining up five additional Republican U.S. House seats. Governor Greg Abbott subsequently threatened to arrest these Democrats unless they return to allow a vote to take place.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any of the Texas House Democrats who fled are arrested by any jurisdiction for any charges between August 4, 4:00 PM ET, and August 8, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$34,234
Enddatum
Aug 8, 2025
Markt eröffnet
Aug 4, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
Most of the 62 Texas House Democrats fled the state on Sunday, August 3, 2025, to deny the Texas House the two‐thirds quorum (at least 100 of 150 members) needed to take up legislation, particularly a controversial GOP‑backed congressional redistricting plan aimed at gaining up five additional Republican U.S. House seats. Governor Greg Abbott subsequently threatened to arrest these Democrats unless they return to allow a vote to take place. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any of the Texas House Democrats who fled are arrested by any jurisdiction for any charges between August 4, 4:00 PM ET, and August 8, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No

Kein Einspruch

Endgültiges Ergebnis: No

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Any fleeing Texas House Democrats arrested by Friday?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Any fleeing Texas House Democrats arrested by Friday?" has generated $34.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 4, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Any fleeing Texas House Democrats arrested by Friday?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Any fleeing Texas House Democrats arrested by Friday?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Any fleeing Texas House Democrats arrested by Friday?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.