Polymarket traders price a roughly 45% implied probability of Apple (AAPL) closing above $170 by March 29, reflecting bearish sentiment triggered by the U.S. DOJ's March 21 antitrust lawsuit alleging smartphone monopoly practices, which drove a 4% single-day share drop to around $170. Current levels hover near the strike amid broader tech sector weakness, with Nasdaq futures down 1.5% YTD gains eroded by fading AI enthusiasm and soft China iPhone demand per recent filings. Key upside risks include dovish Fed rhetoric from the March FOMC supporting growth stocks, while downside looms from March 29 non-farm payrolls data potentially signaling recession. Historical EOM volatility averages 2-3%, leaving room for swings before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$258,870 Vol.
$210
98%
$220
95%
230 $
94%
240 $
80%
$250
48%
$260
16%
270 $
4%
$280
6%
290 $
2%
300 $
2%
310 $
2%
$320
2%
$330
<1%
$258,870 Vol.
$210
98%
$220
95%
230 $
94%
240 $
80%
$250
48%
$260
16%
270 $
4%
$280
6%
290 $
2%
300 $
2%
310 $
2%
$320
2%
$330
<1%
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Apple (AAPL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history, published under "Historical Prices."
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 27, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price a roughly 45% implied probability of Apple (AAPL) closing above $170 by March 29, reflecting bearish sentiment triggered by the U.S. DOJ's March 21 antitrust lawsuit alleging smartphone monopoly practices, which drove a 4% single-day share drop to around $170. Current levels hover near the strike amid broader tech sector weakness, with Nasdaq futures down 1.5% YTD gains eroded by fading AI enthusiasm and soft China iPhone demand per recent filings. Key upside risks include dovish Fed rhetoric from the March FOMC supporting growth stocks, while downside looms from March 29 non-farm payrolls data potentially signaling recession. Historical EOM volatility averages 2-3%, leaving room for swings before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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