Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a leading 47% implied probability to no rate changes across the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve's April 28-29 decision to hold the fed funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid hotter-than-expected March CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024. Resilient labor market data, including unemployment steady at 4.3% and nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs, alongside the latest dot plot signaling just one potential cut later in 2026, has solidified pause expectations. Alternatives like Cut–Cut–Pause at 32% price in softening data scenarios. Key catalyst ahead: April CPI release on May 12, ahead of the June meeting.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডPause–Pause–Pause 60%
Cut–Pause–Cut 32%
Cut–Cut–Pause 32%
Pause–Pause–Cut 31%
নতুন
নতুন
Sep 16, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
18%
Cut–Pause–Cut
32%
Cut–Cut–Pause
32%
Cut–Cut–Cut
13%
Pause–Pause–Pause
47%
Pause–Pause–Cut
31%
Pause–Cut–Pause
26%
Pause–Cut–Cut
26%
Other
29%
Pause–Pause–Pause 60%
Cut–Pause–Cut 32%
Cut–Cut–Pause 32%
Pause–Pause–Cut 31%
নতুন
নতুন
Sep 16, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$0 Vol.
18%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$0 Vol.
32%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$0 Vol.
32%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$7 Vol.
13%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$2 Vol.
47%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$0 Vol.
31%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$0 Vol.
26%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$0 Vol.
26%
Other
$0 Vol.
29%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a leading 47% implied probability to no rate changes across the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve's April 28-29 decision to hold the fed funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid hotter-than-expected March CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024. Resilient labor market data, including unemployment steady at 4.3% and nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs, alongside the latest dot plot signaling just one potential cut later in 2026, has solidified pause expectations. Alternatives like Cut–Cut–Pause at 32% price in softening data scenarios. Key catalyst ahead: April CPI release on May 12, ahead of the June meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
ভলিউম
$8শেষ তারিখ
Sep 16, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a leading 47% implied probability to no rate changes across the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve's April 28-29 decision to hold the fed funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid hotter-than-expected March CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024. Resilient labor market data, including unemployment steady at 4.3% and nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs, alongside the latest dot plot signaling just one potential cut later in 2026, has solidified pause expectations. Alternatives like Cut–Cut–Pause at 32% price in softening data scenarios. Key catalyst ahead: April CPI release on May 12, ahead of the June meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ভলিউম
$8শেষ তারিখ
Sep 16, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a leading 47% implied probability to no rate changes across the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve's April 28-29 decision to hold the fed funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid hotter-than-expected March CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024. Resilient labor market data, including unemployment steady at 4.3% and nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs, alongside the latest dot plot signaling just one potential cut later in 2026, has solidified pause expectations. Alternatives like Cut–Cut–Pause at 32% price in softening data scenarios. Key catalyst ahead: April CPI release on May 12, ahead of the June meeting.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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