Persistent inflation pressures, with May 2026 CPI rising 4.2% year-over-year amid elevated energy costs, combined with a resilient labor market, underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July FOMC meeting. Recent central bank communications have emphasized a data-dependent approach, with traders interpreting the post-June meeting tone as favoring a hold to assess whether the energy-driven price spike proves transitory. This positioning aligns with futures markets pricing limited near-term policy shifts despite the fed funds rate holding at 3.50%-3.75%. A sharper-than-expected moderation in core inflation readings or signs of labor market cooling ahead of the July 28-29 decision could introduce modest volatility, though significant deviations remain unlikely without major data surprises.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডপরিবর্তন নেই 93%
২৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট কমানো 3.7%
২৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট বৃদ্ধি 2.6%
৫০+ বেসিস পয়েন্ট কমানো <1%
$10,746,999 Vol.
$10,746,999 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
৫০+ বেসিস পয়েন্ট কমানো
1%
২৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট কমানো
4%
পরিবর্তন নেই
93%
২৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট বৃদ্ধি
3%
৫০+ বেসিস পয়েন্ট বৃদ্ধি
<1%
পরিবর্তন নেই 93%
২৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট কমানো 3.7%
২৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট বৃদ্ধি 2.6%
৫০+ বেসিস পয়েন্ট কমানো <1%
$10,746,999 Vol.
$10,746,999 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
৫০+ বেসিস পয়েন্ট কমানো
$1,571,142 Vol.
1%
২৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট কমানো
$1,273,401 Vol.
4%
পরিবর্তন নেই
$1,755,814 Vol.
93%
২৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট বৃদ্ধি
$4,275,662 Vol.
3%
৫০+ বেসিস পয়েন্ট বৃদ্ধি
$1,871,090 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation pressures, with May 2026 CPI rising 4.2% year-over-year amid elevated energy costs, combined with a resilient labor market, underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July FOMC meeting. Recent central bank communications have emphasized a data-dependent approach, with traders interpreting the post-June meeting tone as favoring a hold to assess whether the energy-driven price spike proves transitory. This positioning aligns with futures markets pricing limited near-term policy shifts despite the fed funds rate holding at 3.50%-3.75%. A sharper-than-expected moderation in core inflation readings or signs of labor market cooling ahead of the July 28-29 decision could introduce modest volatility, though significant deviations remain unlikely without major data surprises.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
ভলিউম
$10,746,999শেষ তারিখ
Jul 29, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation pressures, with May 2026 CPI rising 4.2% year-over-year amid elevated energy costs, combined with a resilient labor market, underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July FOMC meeting. Recent central bank communications have emphasized a data-dependent approach, with traders interpreting the post-June meeting tone as favoring a hold to assess whether the energy-driven price spike proves transitory. This positioning aligns with futures markets pricing limited near-term policy shifts despite the fed funds rate holding at 3.50%-3.75%. A sharper-than-expected moderation in core inflation readings or signs of labor market cooling ahead of the July 28-29 decision could introduce modest volatility, though significant deviations remain unlikely without major data surprises.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ভলিউম
$10,746,999শেষ তারিখ
Jul 29, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation pressures, with May 2026 CPI rising 4.2% year-over-year amid elevated energy costs, combined with a resilient labor market, underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July FOMC meeting. Recent central bank communications have emphasized a data-dependent approach, with traders interpreting the post-June meeting tone as favoring a hold to assess whether the energy-driven price spike proves transitory. This positioning aligns with futures markets pricing limited near-term policy shifts despite the fed funds rate holding at 3.50%-3.75%. A sharper-than-expected moderation in core inflation readings or signs of labor market cooling ahead of the July 28-29 decision could introduce modest volatility, though significant deviations remain unlikely without major data surprises.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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