Recent hotter-than-expected inflation data have pushed trader expectations toward no federal funds rate cut in 2026. April CPI rose 3.8 percent year-over-year, the highest since May 2023, driven by a 17.9 percent surge in energy prices tied to Middle East supply disruptions. The April FOMC held the target range at 3.50–3.75 percent in an 8-4 vote, with Chair Powell highlighting 3.5 percent PCE risks and uncertainty. CME FedWatch now prices a 77 percent probability of no change through year-end, while futures imply possible hikes in 2027. Key upcoming releases include May CPI on June 10 and the June 17–18 FOMC meeting, where labor market resilience and persistent price pressures could further delay any easing.