Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 78.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to pause interest rates at the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, driven by hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year—up from February's 2.4% amid war-fueled oil shocks—and resilient labor data showing 178,000 nonfarm payroll additions and a 4.3% unemployment rate. February PCE inflation held at 2.8%, but March FOMC minutes revealed officials raising 2026 inflation forecasts while holding the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75%, signaling a "higher-for-longer" stance with any easing likely deferred to later quarters. Upcoming April decision and PCE data will test this positioning amid persistent geopolitical risks.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডPause–Pause–Pause 78%
Pause–Pause–Cut 12%
Other 9%
Cut–Pause–Cut 4.9%
নতুন
নতুন
Jul 29, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
<1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
5%
Cut–Cut–Pause
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
<1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
78%
Pause–Pause–Cut
12%
Pause–Cut–Pause
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
9%
Pause–Pause–Pause 78%
Pause–Pause–Cut 12%
Other 9%
Cut–Pause–Cut 4.9%
নতুন
নতুন
Jul 29, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$1,041 Vol.
<1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$775 Vol.
5%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$779 Vol.
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$804 Vol.
<1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$1,449 Vol.
78%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$999 Vol.
12%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$680 Vol.
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$835 Vol.
1%
Other
$1,111 Vol.
9%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 78.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to pause interest rates at the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, driven by hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year—up from February's 2.4% amid war-fueled oil shocks—and resilient labor data showing 178,000 nonfarm payroll additions and a 4.3% unemployment rate. February PCE inflation held at 2.8%, but March FOMC minutes revealed officials raising 2026 inflation forecasts while holding the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75%, signaling a "higher-for-longer" stance with any easing likely deferred to later quarters. Upcoming April decision and PCE data will test this positioning amid persistent geopolitical risks.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
ভলিউম
$8,475শেষ তারিখ
Jul 29, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 78.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to pause interest rates at the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, driven by hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year—up from February's 2.4% amid war-fueled oil shocks—and resilient labor data showing 178,000 nonfarm payroll additions and a 4.3% unemployment rate. February PCE inflation held at 2.8%, but March FOMC minutes revealed officials raising 2026 inflation forecasts while holding the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75%, signaling a "higher-for-longer" stance with any easing likely deferred to later quarters. Upcoming April decision and PCE data will test this positioning amid persistent geopolitical risks.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ভলিউম
$8,475শেষ তারিখ
Jul 29, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 78.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to pause interest rates at the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, driven by hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year—up from February's 2.4% amid war-fueled oil shocks—and resilient labor data showing 178,000 nonfarm payroll additions and a 4.3% unemployment rate. February PCE inflation held at 2.8%, but March FOMC minutes revealed officials raising 2026 inflation forecasts while holding the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75%, signaling a "higher-for-longer" stance with any easing likely deferred to later quarters. Upcoming April decision and PCE data will test this positioning amid persistent geopolitical risks.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
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