Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 92.5% implied probability to consecutive FOMC pauses through the April 28-29 and June 16-17 meetings—following the Federal Reserve's March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with an 11-1 vote. This strong positioning reflects March CPI inflation accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year (up from February's 2.4%), fueled by energy shocks from Mideast tensions, alongside resilient nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs. The Fed's dot plot projects just one potential 25 basis point cut late in 2026, with seven officials now forecasting none amid sticky core inflation at 2.6%. Scenarios challenging this include sustained oil price declines post-ceasefire easing April CPI or softening labor data ahead of next week's meeting.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডবিরতি–বিরতি–বিরতি 92%
বিরতি–বিরতি–কাট 7%
অন্যান্য 1.4%
বিরতি–ছাড়–বিরতি <1%
$915,081 Vol.
$915,081 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
বিরতি–বিরতি–বিরতি
92%
বিরতি–বিরতি–কাট
7%
অন্যান্য
1%
বিরতি–ছাড়–বিরতি
1%
বিরতি–কাট–কাট
1%
বিরতি–বিরতি–বিরতি 92%
বিরতি–বিরতি–কাট 7%
অন্যান্য 1.4%
বিরতি–ছাড়–বিরতি <1%
$915,081 Vol.
$915,081 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
বিরতি–বিরতি–বিরতি
$35,096 Vol.
92%
বিরতি–বিরতি–কাট
$16,526 Vol.
7%
অন্যান্য
$218,096 Vol.
1%
বিরতি–ছাড়–বিরতি
$133,539 Vol.
1%
বিরতি–কাট–কাট
$511,825 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 92.5% implied probability to consecutive FOMC pauses through the April 28-29 and June 16-17 meetings—following the Federal Reserve's March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with an 11-1 vote. This strong positioning reflects March CPI inflation accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year (up from February's 2.4%), fueled by energy shocks from Mideast tensions, alongside resilient nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs. The Fed's dot plot projects just one potential 25 basis point cut late in 2026, with seven officials now forecasting none amid sticky core inflation at 2.6%. Scenarios challenging this include sustained oil price declines post-ceasefire easing April CPI or softening labor data ahead of next week's meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
ভলিউম
$915,081শেষ তারিখ
Jun 17, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 92.5% implied probability to consecutive FOMC pauses through the April 28-29 and June 16-17 meetings—following the Federal Reserve's March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with an 11-1 vote. This strong positioning reflects March CPI inflation accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year (up from February's 2.4%), fueled by energy shocks from Mideast tensions, alongside resilient nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs. The Fed's dot plot projects just one potential 25 basis point cut late in 2026, with seven officials now forecasting none amid sticky core inflation at 2.6%. Scenarios challenging this include sustained oil price declines post-ceasefire easing April CPI or softening labor data ahead of next week's meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ভলিউম
$915,081শেষ তারিখ
Jun 17, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 92.5% implied probability to consecutive FOMC pauses through the April 28-29 and June 16-17 meetings—following the Federal Reserve's March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with an 11-1 vote. This strong positioning reflects March CPI inflation accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year (up from February's 2.4%), fueled by energy shocks from Mideast tensions, alongside resilient nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs. The Fed's dot plot projects just one potential 25 basis point cut late in 2026, with seven officials now forecasting none amid sticky core inflation at 2.6%. Scenarios challenging this include sustained oil price declines post-ceasefire easing April CPI or softening labor data ahead of next week's meeting.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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