Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96.9% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause for the Federal Reserve's March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed holds at the 3.5%–3.75% federal funds target range in March and April amid resurgent inflation—March CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year, the highest since May 2024—and resilient labor conditions, with April unemployment steady at 4.3% and 115,000 jobs added. April's meeting featured the highest dissent since 1992, signaling policymaker caution against cuts. Realistic challenges include a sharp economic slowdown or sub-2.5% core PCE prints, though tomorrow's April CPI release (May 12) could reinforce the pause if it exceeds 0.3% month-over-month. The June 16–17 meeting looms as the key resolution catalyst.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডবিরতি–বিরতি–বিরতি 96.9%
বিরতি–বিরতি–কাট 2.0%
অন্যান্য 1.2%
$1,044,117 Vol.
$1,044,117 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
বিরতি–বিরতি–বিরতি
97%
বিরতি–বিরতি–কাট
2%
অন্যান্য
1%
বিরতি–বিরতি–বিরতি 96.9%
বিরতি–বিরতি–কাট 2.0%
অন্যান্য 1.2%
$1,044,117 Vol.
$1,044,117 Vol.
Jun 17, 2026
বিরতি–বিরতি–বিরতি
$51,344 Vol.
97%
বিরতি–বিরতি–কাট
$23,660 Vol.
2%
অন্যান্য
$223,771 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96.9% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause for the Federal Reserve's March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed holds at the 3.5%–3.75% federal funds target range in March and April amid resurgent inflation—March CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year, the highest since May 2024—and resilient labor conditions, with April unemployment steady at 4.3% and 115,000 jobs added. April's meeting featured the highest dissent since 1992, signaling policymaker caution against cuts. Realistic challenges include a sharp economic slowdown or sub-2.5% core PCE prints, though tomorrow's April CPI release (May 12) could reinforce the pause if it exceeds 0.3% month-over-month. The June 16–17 meeting looms as the key resolution catalyst.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
ভলিউম
$1,044,117শেষ তারিখ
Jun 17, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96.9% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause for the Federal Reserve's March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed holds at the 3.5%–3.75% federal funds target range in March and April amid resurgent inflation—March CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year, the highest since May 2024—and resilient labor conditions, with April unemployment steady at 4.3% and 115,000 jobs added. April's meeting featured the highest dissent since 1992, signaling policymaker caution against cuts. Realistic challenges include a sharp economic slowdown or sub-2.5% core PCE prints, though tomorrow's April CPI release (May 12) could reinforce the pause if it exceeds 0.3% month-over-month. The June 16–17 meeting looms as the key resolution catalyst.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ভলিউম
$1,044,117শেষ তারিখ
Jun 17, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96.9% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause for the Federal Reserve's March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed holds at the 3.5%–3.75% federal funds target range in March and April amid resurgent inflation—March CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year, the highest since May 2024—and resilient labor conditions, with April unemployment steady at 4.3% and 115,000 jobs added. April's meeting featured the highest dissent since 1992, signaling policymaker caution against cuts. Realistic challenges include a sharp economic slowdown or sub-2.5% core PCE prints, though tomorrow's April CPI release (May 12) could reinforce the pause if it exceeds 0.3% month-over-month. The June 16–17 meeting looms as the key resolution catalyst.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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