Recent inflation data, including April core PCE rising to 3.8% amid Middle East oil supply disruptions, has shifted trader focus toward potential Federal Reserve policy firming after three consecutive holds at the 3.5%-3.75% federal funds target range. April FOMC minutes revealed multiple participants favoring removal of easing bias language, with market-implied odds of a hike before 2027 climbing to 43% on platforms like Kalshi and around 35% for 2026 on Polymarket. Stronger labor conditions and upward revisions to inflation forecasts have tempered earlier cut expectations, while Treasury yields and fed funds futures reflect this repricing. Key upcoming catalysts include the June FOMC meeting and May CPI release, which could further influence the rate path versus the March dot plot's median projection of limited easing.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডFed rate hike by...?
Fed rate hike by...?
$154,138 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
June Meeting
1%
July Meeting
6%
September Meeting
12%
October Meeting
24%
$154,138 Vol.
June Meeting
$15,781 Vol.
1%
July Meeting
$1,768 Vol.
6%
September Meeting
$2,737 Vol.
12%
October Meeting
$2,545 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent inflation data, including April core PCE rising to 3.8% amid Middle East oil supply disruptions, has shifted trader focus toward potential Federal Reserve policy firming after three consecutive holds at the 3.5%-3.75% federal funds target range. April FOMC minutes revealed multiple participants favoring removal of easing bias language, with market-implied odds of a hike before 2027 climbing to 43% on platforms like Kalshi and around 35% for 2026 on Polymarket. Stronger labor conditions and upward revisions to inflation forecasts have tempered earlier cut expectations, while Treasury yields and fed funds futures reflect this repricing. Key upcoming catalysts include the June FOMC meeting and May CPI release, which could further influence the rate path versus the March dot plot's median projection of limited easing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
ভলিউম
$154,138শেষ তারিখ
Oct 29, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent inflation data, including April core PCE rising to 3.8% amid Middle East oil supply disruptions, has shifted trader focus toward potential Federal Reserve policy firming after three consecutive holds at the 3.5%-3.75% federal funds target range. April FOMC minutes revealed multiple participants favoring removal of easing bias language, with market-implied odds of a hike before 2027 climbing to 43% on platforms like Kalshi and around 35% for 2026 on Polymarket. Stronger labor conditions and upward revisions to inflation forecasts have tempered earlier cut expectations, while Treasury yields and fed funds futures reflect this repricing. Key upcoming catalysts include the June FOMC meeting and May CPI release, which could further influence the rate path versus the March dot plot's median projection of limited easing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ভলিউম
$154,138শেষ তারিখ
Oct 29, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent inflation data, including April core PCE rising to 3.8% amid Middle East oil supply disruptions, has shifted trader focus toward potential Federal Reserve policy firming after three consecutive holds at the 3.5%-3.75% federal funds target range. April FOMC minutes revealed multiple participants favoring removal of easing bias language, with market-implied odds of a hike before 2027 climbing to 43% on platforms like Kalshi and around 35% for 2026 on Polymarket. Stronger labor conditions and upward revisions to inflation forecasts have tempered earlier cut expectations, while Treasury yields and fed funds futures reflect this repricing. Key upcoming catalysts include the June FOMC meeting and May CPI release, which could further influence the rate path versus the March dot plot's median projection of limited easing.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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