iutwpfal

Joined Jan 2026·2.5K views

One eye in da mirror as I watch myself gavotte

$14.6K

Positions Value

$3,536.34

Biggest Win

1,105

Predictions

Profit/Loss

$379.76

Past Day

Current

Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?

Yes 78.2¢

3,358.5 shares

78.2¢

89.6¢

$3,010.94$385.45 (14.68%)

Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?

Yes 78.2¢

3,358.5 shares

$3,010.94$385.45 (14.68%)

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?

No 40¢

3,617.4 shares

40¢

36.5¢

$1,320.36-$126.06 (-8.72%)

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?

No 40¢

3,617.4 shares

$1,320.36-$126.06 (-8.72%)

Will another contestant win The Bachelorette Season 22?

Yes 48.5¢

1,220.2 shares

48.5¢

87¢

$1,061.56$470.10 (79.48%)

Will another contestant win The Bachelorette Season 22?

Yes 48.5¢

1,220.2 shares

$1,061.56$470.10 (79.48%)

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?

No 21.8¢

3,617.7 shares

21.8¢

27.5¢

$994.87$204.77 (25.92%)

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?

No 21.8¢

3,617.7 shares

$994.87$204.77 (25.92%)

Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?

Yes 80¢

984.6 shares

80¢

95.1¢

$935.89$148.30 (18.83%)

Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?

Yes 80¢

984.6 shares

$935.89$148.30 (18.83%)

Will Trump deport 400-500k people?

Yes 47.6¢

981.4 shares

47.6¢

60¢

$588.83$121.46 (25.99%)

Will Trump deport 400-500k people?

Yes 47.6¢

981.4 shares

$588.83$121.46 (25.99%)

Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?

Yes 52.6¢

968.6 shares

52.6¢

57.5¢

$556.97$47.29 (9.28%)

Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?

Yes 52.6¢

968.6 shares

$556.97$47.29 (9.28%)

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500?

No 45¢

900.0 shares

45¢

54.5¢

$490.50$85.50 (21.11%)

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1500?

No 45¢

900.0 shares

$490.50$85.50 (21.11%)

Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?

Yes 76.1¢

534.9 shares

76.1¢

90¢

$481.11$74.06 (18.2%)

Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?

Yes 76.1¢

534.9 shares

$481.11$74.06 (18.2%)

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027?

No 73.7¢

539.8 shares

73.7¢

88.1¢

$475.32$77.73 (19.55%)

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027?

No 73.7¢

539.8 shares

$475.32$77.73 (19.55%)

Rihanna confirmed pregnant in 2026?

No 33.9¢

543.5 shares

33.9¢

81.5¢

$442.97$258.83 (140.56%)

Rihanna confirmed pregnant in 2026?

No 33.9¢

543.5 shares

$442.97$258.83 (140.56%)

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?

Yes 87.9¢

501.6 shares

87.9¢

84.5¢

$423.81-$17.35 (-3.93%)

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?

Yes 87.9¢

501.6 shares

$423.81-$17.35 (-3.93%)

Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?

No 74.4¢

463.9 shares

74.4¢

85.7¢

$397.30$52.08 (15.09%)

Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?

No 74.4¢

463.9 shares

$397.30$52.08 (15.09%)

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?

No 68.3¢

431.0 shares

68.3¢

85.5¢

$368.51$74.06 (25.15%)

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?

No 68.3¢

431.0 shares

$368.51$74.06 (25.15%)

Will the next Mythos-Class model debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?

Yes 99.6¢

283.1 shares

99.6¢

99.7¢

$282.25$0.23 (0.08%)

Will the next Mythos-Class model debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?

Yes 99.6¢

283.1 shares

$282.25$0.23 (0.08%)

Will OpenAI's Astra model debut as #1? (Text Arena)

No 80.5¢

354.1 shares

80.5¢

78.5¢

$277.95-$7.16 (-2.51%)

Will OpenAI's Astra model debut as #1? (Text Arena)

No 80.5¢

354.1 shares

$277.95-$7.16 (-2.51%)

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?

No 38¢

949.1 shares

38¢

24.5¢

$232.54-$128.60 (-35.61%)

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?

No 38¢

949.1 shares

$232.54-$128.60 (-35.61%)

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?

Yes 89.7¢

212.1 shares

89.7¢

99.9¢

$211.93$21.58 (11.34%)

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?

Yes 89.7¢

212.1 shares

$211.93$21.58 (11.34%)

Will the next Mythos-Class model debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher?

Yes 99.6¢

196.9 shares

99.6¢

98.9¢

$194.74-$1.32 (-0.67%)

Will the next Mythos-Class model debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher?

Yes 99.6¢

196.9 shares

$194.74-$1.32 (-0.67%)

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?

No 66.3¢

202.8 shares

66.3¢

89.5¢

$181.55$47.14 (35.08%)

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?

No 66.3¢

202.8 shares

$181.55$47.14 (35.08%)